The food and drinks business faces extra ingredient vulnerability than ever, with objects that have been as soon as thought of pantry staples turning into much less dependable as a result of local weather change, illness, and provide chain disruptions. This yr alone, the USA Division of Agriculture’s (USDA) Meals Value Outlook predicts a staggering 20.3% rise in egg costs.
Early outbreaks of the Avian Influenza H5N1 pressure prompted vital egg shortages in 2023. The state of affairs in 2025 is much more strained, with the nationwide flock remaining smaller than it was throughout the earlier outbreak, additional tightening provide.
The egg class isn’t the one one to expertise volatility as a result of uncontrollable components in recent times. During the last 20 years, orange yields have declined by 75% or extra in key citrus areas, corresponding to Florida and Brazil. That is primarily as a result of extreme affect of citrus greening illness, however excessive climate, corresponding to droughts, floods, and hurricanes, has additionally impacted the juice business.
Equally, the cocoa business faces unprecedented challenges. West Africa is the place 80% of the world’s cocoa is grown, with 55% alone produced in Ghana and the Ivory Coast. In 2024, International cocoa manufacturing was down 11% as a result of more and more unfavorable climate circumstances, which proceed to spur crop illness. The outlook is worrisome as local weather change is anticipated to accentuate the area’s El Niño local weather sample results.
Objects like eggs, cocoa, and oranges have lengthy been prized for his or her affordability, versatility, and dietary worth. Regardless of provide chain disruptions, shopper loyalty stays robust amongst these merchandise. As of February 2024, simply 4% of US egg shoppers anticipated lowering their egg consumption, highlighting the inelastic nature of this market. Moreover, 87% of non-vegan US shoppers reported consuming eggs throughout the six months main as much as February 2024. In brief, eggs are an integral staple within the American weight-reduction plan.
Under are three key methods food and drinks manufacturers ought to contemplate as they proceed to navigate ingredient shortages in 2025 and past.
Key Methods to Enhance Ingredient Diversification
Show worth to win shoppers’s loyalty
Over half of US shoppers affiliate eggs with being simple to organize and wholesome. Options to interchange eggs have to show their worth by matching these attributes: well being, comfort, and – particularly now – affordability.
Traditionally, plant-based egg substitutes have been costlier than conventional eggs. Nevertheless, a tipping level could quickly be reached the place these alternate options obtain value parity. The continued Extremely Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak has made it tougher to search out eggs on cabinets, doubtlessly pushing shoppers towards premium-priced, plant-based choices. It is a important time for egg alternate options to show their worth and ship on style and performance to retain shoppers as soon as the egg scarcity is resolved.
Along with being an reasonably priced and easy-to-prepare protein, eggs have many technical advantages and are used steadily in baking, desserts and different classes. For instance, baking mixes typically require the buyer so as to add eggs to organize. Agile baking manufacturers can pivot to supply full baking mixes that don’t require extra eggs. These options might be both egg-free or made with dried egg components however would supply shoppers the comfort of an all-in-one resolution that may proceed to drive worth even after egg costs stabilize.
The lesson: Keep targeted on delivering worth by means of style and performance to extend shopper loyalty.
Innovation is nonetheless paramount
Some forward-thinking manufacturers are serving to shoppers adapt and undertake ingredient diversification. For instance, King Arthur Baking, in a February 2025 Instagram put up, supplied suggestions for baking with out eggs. Their recommendations included aquafaba (water from beans), puréed tofu, mashed banana, pumpkin purée, applesauce, and flax or chia seeds.
Supply: Mintel Buy Intelligence
King Arthur Baking proactively helps shoppers adapt to ingredient innovation as eggs change into scarce by means of clear and genuine communication, successfully safeguarding its model and gross sales within the course of.
Different manufacturers have sought to duplicate eggs’ distinctive properties in plant-based alternate options. As an illustration, tofu can change scrambled eggs, whereas black salt is typically used to imitate eggs’ sulfur-like aroma.
The lesson: Inventive options assist shoppers and companies to adapt and navigate crises, even when provides dwindle.
Take heed to the massive image
Repercussions of main points affecting the food and drinks business are not often remoted occasions. The identical goes for the affect HPAI has past the egg market.
The virus is spreading quickly throughout species, affecting chickens, turkeys, geese, wild birds, dairy cattle, cats, and even people. H5N1 subtypes are additionally rising and pose potential public well being dangers, although their pandemic potential stays unclear. HPAI has been much less extreme in dairy herds, however can nonetheless affect the dairy market and manufacturing. Greater than 1 / 4 of California’s dairy farms have already been affected, prompting Governor Newsom to declare a state of emergency.
Pet meals manufacturers must also keep vigilant, as cats are significantly susceptible to the virus. Pet homeowners will possible search assurances concerning the security of their pets’ meals, putting extra stress on the business.
The lesson: Manufacturers should acknowledge the interconnected dangers posed by crises like HPAI and prioritize adaptable methods to take care of shopper belief.
Form the Way forward for Ingredient Diversification with Mintel
As sudden occasions proceed to disrupt provide chains, manufacturers and shoppers alike should adapt. Whether or not by means of modern alternate options, artistic options, or heightened security measures, navigating the way forward for components would require resilience and resourcefulness.
By taking these steps, meals manufacturers can proactively and authentically handle ingredient vulnerabilities and construct stronger relationships with their clients.
Wish to know extra about how altering shopper preferences are driving a profound transformation in ingredient innovation within the food and drinks business? Learn our Unveiling the Developments Driving Ingredient Innovation within the Meals Trade perception on Highlight at the moment!
For extra components market analysis, Mintel Shoppers can contact their Account Supervisor or entry the total Ingredient Watch Perception right here (Shopper entry solely). If you happen to aren’t a consumer, please contact us at the moment, and a member of our crew will get in contact.
