Flight bookings between Canada and U.S. down 70%, report says

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Passenger bookings on flight routes between Canada and the US “have collapsed,” dropping by greater than 70 per cent in each month by means of to the top of September 2025, in line with new forward-looking flight information launched by OAG Aviation Worldwide Ltd. (OAG).

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The report by OAG mentioned information for the upcoming season present a “placing decline” in whole bookings in comparison with the identical level final yr. For instance, by March 2024 there have been 1,218,570 flights booked for April, whereas for April 2025, solely 295,982 bookings have been recorded this month, a 75.7 per cent decline.

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“This sharp drop means that travellers are holding off on making reservations, possible as a result of ongoing uncertainty surrounding the broader commerce dispute,” it mentioned.

The obvious fall in client confidence is a priority for all airways working between the neighbouring nations, particularly over such a brief time frame, mentioned OAG. This provides to what had already turn out to be a softening market within the airline business.

The report mentioned prospects nonetheless planning to journey could discover some airways providing significantly low cost fares over the subsequent few months to stimulate demand. Nevertheless, this will likely be an anxious interval for airways, particularly as the normal “snowbird” market from Canada to the U.S. might be badly impacted subsequent yr if the scenario doesn’t quickly enhance.

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Scheduled one-way seats filed on March 3 and March 24, a three-week distinction, had greater than 320,000 seats eliminated by airways by means of to the top of October.

The 2 peak summer time months, July and August, have essentially the most noticeable cuts, the place airways have lowered capability by some 3.5 per cent. In the meantime, solar locations such because the Caribbean and Mexico have had an uptick in bookings from Canadian travellers.

Airways had already began lowering capability between Canada and the U.S. in anticipation of the drop in demand. Air Canada began reducing capability to sure leisure locations, together with Florida, Las Vegas and Arizona, at first of March.

“Demand for solar markets continues to surpass our expectations, and the reserving curve has shifted to a extra shut setting,” the airline’s govt vice-president for income and community planning, Mark Galardo, mentioned throughout Air Canada’s fourth quarter earnings name on Feb. 14.

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WestJet, too, has reported a shift in journey reserving behaviour amongst Canadians.

“We’ve noticed a shift in bookings from the U.S. to different solar locations reminiscent of Mexico and the Caribbean amongst Canadian travellers,” Julia Kaiser, a spokesperson for WestJet Airways Ltd. mentioned in an e mail. She mentioned the airline stays targeted on figuring out the place folks need to go, and can proceed to fly the place there may be demand.

Price range provider Aptitude Airways Ltd. mentioned it’s also monitoring journey developments, together with shifts in U.S. demand, and adjusts its community accordingly. The airline lately cancelled its summer time flights to Nashville, which it attributed to a shift in demand.

The state of Tennessee’s tourism division blamed the commerce conflict with the US for the cancellations.

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Other than seeing sturdy curiosity in transborder routes to Mexico, Jamaica and the Dominican Republic, Aptitude Airways famous an increase in native demand, restarting and resuming some inter-Canadian routes sooner than deliberate.

Travellers seeking to escape the chilly Canadian winters normally journey south, a lot of them to Florida, the closest sunny haven and a well-liked vacation spot for snowbirds. In an tackle on Mar. 6, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis talked about that out of the state’s 142 million guests final yr, 3.3 million hailed from Canada, which he characterised as “not a lot of a boycott.”

These numbers, nevertheless, are from earlier than U.S. President Donald Trump took workplace and subsequently started threatening Canada with tariffs and annexation.

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Porter Airways, which had beforehand elevated its U.S. presence by roughly 150 per cent year-over-year, mentioned that whereas it has filed schedules months prematurely, the provider is monitoring reserving patterns and is aware of the general financial scenario.

In an e mail, it mentioned that Canadians are persevering with to journey to the U.S., however the airline is seeing some softening of choose U.S. leisure markets and fares are being adjusted to stimulate demand. Present U.S. flights are being maintained, it mentioned.

A survey performed by Abacus Information on Feb. 20 to 25 mentioned 56 per cent of Canadians who initially deliberate to go to the U.S. this yr had both cancelled or modified their journey plans as tensions between the U.S. and Canada escalated.

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Practically 40 per cent of these travellers mentioned they had shifted their plans to different nations or totally different places inside Canada, whereas 17 per cent had postponed or cancelled their U.S. journeys altogether.

One other survey, performed by EQ Financial institution, appeared into how Canadian travellers are managing the weaker Canadian greenback (CAD) towards the U.S. greenback (USD), following President Trump’s signing of govt orders enacting tariffs on Feb. 1 and their subsequent postponement.

The survey, performed from Feb. 4 to six, mentioned 62 per cent of the respondents deliberate to focus extra on journey inside Canada in gentle of the forex trade. About the identical proportion mentioned they may journey much less to the U.S. or internationally to handle the impression of a weaker Canadian greenback on their private funds.

“With the continued tariff developments and ever-evolving commerce wars, it’s no shock that Canadians are specializing in travelling domestically whereas giving up on their journey plans to the U.S.,” it mentioned.

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