Fitch Rankings-New York/London-06 January 2026: The quick and longer-term outcomes of the US’s removing of Venezuelan chief Nicolas Maduro are extremely unsure, however they may have geopolitical implications by way of higher US affect and energy within the Western Hemisphere, Fitch Rankings says. Nonetheless, we don’t anticipate Maduro’s ouster to result in any quick sovereign score actions, partially due to Venezuela’s restricted commerce and monetary linkages with the remainder of the area.
The scenario in Venezuela seems fluid. After condemning the US motion, interim president Delcy Rodríguez mentioned the Venezuelan authorities is prepared to work with the US to “collaborate… on an agenda or cooperation oriented in the direction of shared growth.” The Trump administration predicated its motion on Maduro’s alleged ties to drug trafficking and has signalled its different core goal is to realize entry to Venezuela’s oil sector and to redevelop its oil infrastructure. Nevertheless it stays unclear the way it plans to attain this and whether or not facilitating a democratic transition will ultimately change into a US precedence.
The ratcheting-up of US political stress on Venezuela and a army build-up within the Caribbean in 2025 had elevated the chance of a geopolitical occasion. Numerous public feedback from each side point out that some form of lodging between the US and a post-Maduro Chavista regime is feasible. However the sustainability of such an association could be unsure, President Donald Trump has mentioned that he may launch “a second strike” on Venezuela if US calls for will not be met and an escalation can’t be dominated out.
If the removing of Maduro and/or army escalation led to main political dislocation inside Venezuela, this might enhance safety and macro-economic challenges in close by international locations. However absent this, we anticipate near-term spillovers to be contained. Neither Venezuela nor its smaller neighbours, Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago, have public scores assigned by Fitch. Aruba (BBB-/Constructive) may see disruptions to its tourism sector.
Maduro’s removing is in step with the reassertion of the ‘Monroe Doctrine’ that locations the Western Hemisphere – from Greenland to the Caribbean and Latin America – on the centre of US overseas coverage and goals to restrict China and Russia’s affect, as outlined within the Nationwide Safety Technique revealed in November. Shifts in US commerce and migration insurance policies since Trump returned to workplace a 12 months in the past haven’t had severely adverse penalties for Latin American and Caribbean international locations up to now. However occasions in Venezuela may have a robust demonstration impact on these international locations’ orientation in the direction of US priorities below Trump, their view of the credibility of US threats and their willingness to reply to US coverage calls for.
Colombia (BB/Steady), which bore the brunt of the Venezuelan refugee disaster throughout Maduro’s presidency, has already been “decertified” by the Trump administration for allegedly “failing demonstrably” to fight drug trafficking. This might expose it to threat of some type of US stress, however that is prone to rely upon the willingness of the winner of Colombia’s presidential elections, due in Might, to cooperate with the US.
The demonstration impact of the forceful US motion may additionally come into play within the upcoming overview of the USMCA commerce cope with Mexico (BBB-/Steady), bringing safety and different non-trade points into the negotiation that would make it harder. The Sheinbaum administration has stepped up extraditions of alleged cartel members to the US, however we expect the USMCA overview remains to be prone to be difficult, protecting financial uncertainty excessive.
Nicaragua (B/Steady) may even see a rise in US coverage stress given the 2 international locations’ strained relationship and President Daniel Ortega’s criticism of the US army build-up. Different Latin American governments have already demonstrated a extra supportive perspective to the Trump administration’s strategic and financial agendas. For instance, the Dominican Republic (BB-/Constructive) has allowed the US entry to airbases.
Over an extended time horizon, a restoration of Venezuelan oil provide may have an effect on costs, which might be related for the area’s oil dependent economies, however this is able to be extremely depending on different, international provide and demand elements. Reintegrating Venezuela into the regional buying and selling system may increase Colombia’s non-oil economic system given in depth commerce between the international locations up to now.
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