Tesla’s push to refocus on humanoid robots and autonomous autos could also be headed for a slower begin than CEO Elon Musk’s bullish timelines beforehand promised.
Musk mentioned Tuesday manufacturing for the corporate’s deliberate Cybercab robotaxis and its humanoid Optimus robots will “ramp” slower than anticipated, at the same time as he sells traders on a future powered by AI and automation.
Replying to a put up from content material creator and Tesla investor Sawyer Merritt by which he famous Cybercab manufacturing is about to start in fewer than 100 days, Musk flagged a caveat.
With the essential caveat that preliminary manufacturing is at all times very sluggish and follows an S-curve.
The velocity of the manufacturing ramp is inversely proportionate to what number of new components and steps there are.
For Cybercab and Optimus, nearly every little thing is new, so the early manufacturing…
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 20, 2026
“Preliminary manufacturing is at all times very sluggish and follows an S-curve,” Musk argued. “The velocity of the manufacturing ramp is inversely proportionate to what number of new components and steps there are.”
For a few of Tesla’s most modern merchandise, such because the Cybercab and Optimus, this sample is particularly true, he famous.
“Virtually every little thing is new, so the early manufacturing charge will likely be agonizingly sluggish, however ultimately find yourself being insanely quick,” he mentioned.
Musk beforehand mentioned the autonomous Cybercab would start manufacturing in April 2026. He additionally mentioned “low manufacturing” of Optimus robots would start by 2025 so that they may very well be utilized in Tesla’s factories. He mentioned “excessive manufacturing” of the Optimus robots would “hopefully” are available in 2026, and permit different corporations to make use of the robots in their very own factories.
Tesla didn’t instantly reply to Fortune’s request for remark.
Tesla’s previous of lacking manufacturing timelines
Even for Tesla, which has spent years refining high-volume EV manufacturing, timelines typically differ from actuality. In 2017, Musk pushed Tesla staff into what he known as “manufacturing hell” to satisfy his aim of manufacturing 5,000 Mannequin 3’s per week by December 2017 after which 10,000 per week in 2018. But, the corporate solely met the aim of manufacturing 5,000 Mannequin 3’s per week in the summertime of 2018.
Musk’s most up-to-date X put up comes as he has more and more framed Tesla’s long-term worth across the future potential of Optimus and its car autonomy, as demonstrated by the corporate’s Cybercab and its Full Self-Driving software program.
This narrative has helped Tesla differentiate itself from different electric-vehicle makers equivalent to BYD, Volkswagen, and BMW, as EV demand falls and value competitors stays intense. Partly due to Musk’s lofty imaginative and prescient, the corporate’s inventory value recovered to an all-time-high shut of $481 in December after having slumped to half that value earlier in March. Tesla shares closed up about 3% at $431 as of Wednesday.
To make certain, the tempo of manufacturing could matter simply as a lot because the promise for traders. A sluggish rollout may delay any significant income contribution from Tesla’s robotaxis or humanoid robots. Whereas Musk has promised Optimus will at some point make up 80% of Tesla’s worth, for now, its core enterprise of promoting vehicles remains to be its cash maker.
But, Tesla’s fourth-quarter deliveries of 418,200 autos fell barely in need of the analyst-expected 422,900 autos. The lower-priced Commonplace Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y autos carried Tesla’s deliveries and barely surpassed expectations, whereas its different fashions fell hundreds of deliveries brief, based on a be aware by Wedbush analyst Dan Ives.
Tesla is dealing with elevated competitors for its autos and slower demand, particularly for some fashions, together with the Cybertruck. Musk warned final yr President Donald Trump discontinuing the EV tax credit score may additionally result in a “few tough quarters” for the corporate.
Nonetheless, Tesla’s fourth-quarter outcomes weren’t as dangerous as some anticipated, Ives wrote within the be aware. Plus, its rising power enterprise and its foray into extra area of interest markets to offset setbacks in China and Europe may point out “a step in the suitable route” for the corporate trying ahead to 2026.
“We imagine Tesla may attain a $2 trillion market cap over the approaching yr and in a bull case state of affairs $3 trillion by the tip of 2026…as full scale quantity manufacturing begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap,” Ives wrote.
This story was initially featured on Fortune.com
