The evaluation is predicated on rolling month-to-month 15-year home windows from 1965 to 2025 and may very well be improved in future analysis utilizing moment-match parametric Monte Carlo simulations or bootstrapping from noticed returns.
Future analysis may additionally incorporate longer time horizons, multi-factor portfolios, further asset lessons, dynamic withdrawal insurance policies, and regime-based threat administration methods.
Distributions have been set as a share of the portfolio versus a tough preliminary greenback quantity, each sensible and behaviorally pushed. Nevertheless, there are various different acceptable and generally used methods to take distributions, like the commonest 4% beginning quantity, then linearly adjusted for inflation (CPI). Future analysis may examine how numerous portfolio designs have an effect on the completely different withdrawal strategies.
Appendix & Citations
Information Supply: Compustat.
Calculation: Hartford Fairness Modeling Platform.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Client Worth Index for All City Shoppers: All Objects Much less Meals and Power in U.S. Metropolis Common [CPILFESL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Financial institution of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/collection/CPILFESL, January 9, 2026.
Model Definitions:
High 500 Worth: US high 500 shares high 30% based mostly on composite worth as outlined by a number of equally weighted valuation metrics to reach at an aggregated valuation metric. Valuation metrics embody: P/E, EBITDA/EV, working money move/EV, income/EV, and B/P Yield (used solely in financials and actual property as a alternative to EBITDA/EV), then cap weighted.
High 500 Low Volatility: US High 500 Shares high 30% based mostly on a composite volatility rating outlined by a number of equality weighted volatility metrics to reach at an aggregated volatility metric. Volatility metrics embody three-year weekly beta and six-month each day customary deviation, then cap weighted.
High 500 Low Volatility VMQ: US High 500 Shares high 50% based mostly on a composite volatility rating outlined by a number of equality weighted volatility metrics to reach at an aggregated volatility metric. Volatility metrics embody three-year weekly beta and six-month each day customary deviation, then cap weighted. Then high 50% based mostly on mixed rating of fifty% worth, 30% momentum and 20% high quality. Mixed scores for monetary and actual property sector firms are assigned weightings of 65% Worth and 35% Momentum. Composite worth as outlined by a number of equally weighted valuation metrics to reach at an aggregated valuation metric. Valuation metrics embody: P/E, EBITDA/EV, working money move/EV, income/EV, and B/P Yield (used solely in financials and actual property as a alternative to EBITDA/EV), then cap weighted. Composite momentum equally weights Final 12 ex-1 month-to-month returns and final 6 ex-1 month-to-month returns to reach at an aggregated momentum metric. Composite high quality makes use of gross profitability to complete belongings.
High 500 Development: US high 500 shares high 30% based mostly on 5 years gross sales development, then cap weighted.
High 500 Cap Weighted: US High 500 shares, cap weighted.
High 500 Equal Weighted: US High 500 shares, equal weighted.
