Importers jump on low shekel exchange rate

New figures from the Financial institution of Israel reveal the forces which have been transferring the shekel in current months. Whereas Israeli monetary establishments continued to promote {dollars}, strengthening the shekel, importers noticed a chance. Corporations took benefit of the autumn within the shekel-dollar trade fee beneath NI 3/$ and in simply three months purchased as a lot overseas forex as they’d usually purchase in a complete 12 months.

A breakdown of the information by Meitav chief economist Alex Zabezhinsky‏ reveals that throughout the second quarter of this 12 months companies purchased overseas forex to the tune of $12 billion, and $24 billion up to now 4 quarters. These purchases, he says, have been supposed to repair their trade charges and make imports cheaper in a while.

“The previous 12 months has been pretty distinctive. Particularly within the second quarter, the enterprise sector, significantly importers, exploited the low shekel-dollar fee, which went as little as NIS 2.8/$,” Zabezhinsky says. “They purchased a substantial amount of overseas forex cheaply, whether or not for uncooked supplies or for funding or for completed merchandise at decrease costs. For exporters, it wasn’t such interval, however for importers it was wonderful, with a big margin that enabled them to be extra aggressive.”

One other issue within the overseas forex equation is the conduct of overseas buyers, however they haven’t exhibited uncommon exercise in current months. This class is usually made up of improvement facilities, know-how firms, and different entities beneath overseas possession that promote overseas forex and purchase shekels to pay salaries, hire, and taxes. “The present information don’t make it attainable to establish whether or not that is the case, however at any fee the exercise of overseas entities was negligible. It might have been speculative exercise by different overseas residents,” Zabezhinsky says.

Capital market sources say that the direct intervention by the Financial institution of Israel in shopping for {dollars} contributed to the pattern. In Might, the central financial institution purchased $800 million, and in June it purchased $1 billion. The Financial institution of Israel has two predominant instruments for intervention within the overseas trade market: financial intervention geared toward influencing the trade fee, and tactical intervention geared toward guaranteeing that buying and selling features correctly.

On this occasion, the financial institution operated on the second airplane, after figuring out manipulations and improper exercise in the marketplace. Market sources imagine, nonetheless, that even these targeted interventions have been sufficient to vary the temper, and particularly they prompted many importers to begin shopping for {dollars} themselves.

Hedging prices soar

A really distinguished aspect is the monetary establishments, which for a number of quarters have been decreasing their publicity to overseas forex. The pattern sharpened lately, due to the rise in the price of hedging following three rate of interest cuts by the Financial institution of Israel because the starting of the 12 months. Whereas the Israeli central financial institution cuts charges, the US Federal Reserve continues to maintain its fee excessive. This rate of interest hole considerably raises the premium that the monetary establishments pay on changing {dollars}. Market estimates converse of a doubling of the premium as compared with the interval earlier than the Financial institution of Israel began reducing charges.

Zabezhinsky says that this 12 months has been uncommon, characterised by a pointy fall within the establishments’ publicity to overseas forex. “It is a course of that feeds itself, as a result of if there’s a discount in publicity to overseas forex that results in a stronger shekel, then the robust shekel causes a fair sharper fall in publicity to overseas forex. It was unprecedentedly fast and powerful. We noticed it along with a fall within the threat premium and excellent efficiency by the inventory market in Israel two months in the past.”

Thus the appreciation of the shekel, which started within the first quarter of 2025, led to a pointy fall in publicity to overseas forex within the public’s monetary asset portfolio from 17% to 13% at present. This stage was prevalent within the interval earlier than the judicial overhaul was launched and the protests that adopted that, and the battle that broke out in October 2023.

Within the 12 months to the tip of the second quarter there was peak exercise within the overseas trade market. The monetary establishments offered overseas forex to the tune of $43 billion, of which $14 billion was within the second quarter of 2026 alone. The gross sales paralleled a discount in overseas forex publicity on common funding tracks and diversion of investments by the general public from abroad to the native market.

“The general public is returning to purchasing abroad”

“Up to now couple of months we have now seen the general public return to purchasing abroad, and we’re at a turning level that’s not evident within the information,” Zabezhinsky says. And what of the longer term? Chief Capital Markets chief economist and macro strategist Jonathan Katz level to at least one predominant variable: the US inventory market. Because it rises, the shekel will strengthen, and vice versa.

“If I take a look at the previous 12 months, the unambiguous reply is the conduct of the monetary establishments,” Katz says. “After all, non-financial components are additionally current, akin to the present account surplus, and the power of the know-how sector and cash it raised abroad, amounting to just about $8 billion within the first half 12 months. Regardless of the decline in employment within the sector, exports, of the know-how business and the protection business, and of cybersecurity and R&D companies, proceed to develop quickly. However, a no much less necessary issue, and a few would argue extra essential, is abroad markets, particularly inventory markets, and their direct influence on the exercise of the monetary establishments.”

Smotrich’s declare and the analysts’ response

Zabezhinsky estimates that the robust swings will stabilize. “I believe that they went a little bit too far a method after which too far the opposite means, and we’re now getting again to extra of an equilibrium. So trying forward, until there are wars and plagues, the shekel-dollar trade fee will behave consistent with the conduct of the US inventory market. You need to keep in mind that buyers are at the moment in a ready interval forward of the elections till they perceive the place the brand new authorities will go,” he says.

In an interview two weeks in the past, Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich attributed the appreciation of the shekel to the efficiency of the economic system, and mentioned the shekel-dollar trade fee would proceed at present ranges. On this, Zabezhinsky says, “The shekel has a foundation in the actual economic system. We see the excess on the present account and in funding, and the shekel is a robust forex. However, after I look at the correlation with the US inventory market, the connection could be very clear: the monetary establishments are uncovered to inventory markets within the US, and when these markets rise their overseas forex publicity grows, obliging them to promote overseas forex with the intention to preserve secure publicity.

“Subsequently, alongside the story of the actual economic system, there are different components. When the beepers operation strengthens the shekel, that’s a safety story. When the native inventory market performs effectively or there’s exercise by the monetary establishments, that’s a monetary story. Briefly, the shekel has robust foundations, but it surely’s affected by quite a lot of components.”

Printed by Globes, Israel enterprise information – en.globes.co.il – on August 11, 2026.

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