Snow in London throughout a winter storm. SHansche / iStock / Getty Pictures Plus
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The collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) — a system of ocean currents that pulls heat water from the Southern Hemisphere and the tropics to the Northern Hemisphere — might put some elements of the globe in a “deep freeze,” based on a brand new examine by researchers from the Netherlands.
The findings recommend that, underneath an intermediate greenhouse gasoline emissions state of affairs, international heating wouldn’t be sufficient to outweigh the cooling results of an AMOC collapse, reported Carbon Transient.
“The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) moderates the European local weather. A considerably weaker AMOC underneath local weather change could trigger a cooler Europe in a hotter world,” the authors of the examine wrote. “Other than temperature adjustments, winter storms are anticipated to strengthen and provides rise to giant day-to-day temperature fluctuations underneath a considerably weaker AMOC. The European temperatures of the (far) future are set by the AMOC power and the quantity of worldwide warming.”
NEW – Ocean present ‘collapse’ might set off ‘profound cooling’ in northern Europe – even with international warming | @ceciliakeating.carbonbrief.org w/remark from Rene van Westen
Learn right here: buff.ly/iMXdkOR
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— Carbon Transient (@carbonbrief.org) June 11, 2025 at 9:00 AM
On the earth modeled within the examine, one out of each 10 London winters might convey low temperatures near minus-four levels Fahrenheit. In the meantime, winter extremes in Oslo, Norway, might drop to round minus-54.4 levels.
To assist visualize the worldwide impacts of a collapse of AMOC, the scientists created an interactive map.
Scientists have warned that continued international heating because of human-caused local weather change might end in AMOC reaching a “tipping level.”
“What if the AMOC collapses and now we have local weather change? Does the cooling win or does the warming win?” requested co-author of the findings René van Westen, a marine and atmospheric researcher at Utrecht College within the Netherlands, as CNN reported.
Van Westen advised CNN theirs was the primary examine to make use of a posh, fashionable local weather mannequin to reply that query.
The examine targeted totally on the impacts of an “intermediate state of affairs with AMOC collapse.”
The researchers thought-about a state of affairs the place AMOC weakened by 80 % and the planet’s temperature was roughly two levels Celsius above pre-industrial ranges. Even within the hotter world, they discovered that Europe would expertise “substantial cooling.”
The scientists discovered that sea ice would unfold into Scandinavia, the Netherlands and elements of the U.S. In these areas, cooling can be amplified by the solar’s rays being mirrored off the white floor of snow and ice.
“[The new study] makes use of a classy local weather mannequin with good regional decision – much better than what was attainable 26 years in the past. The mannequin confirms the long-standing concern that an AMOC collapse would have huge impacts on European local weather, on this case specializing in temperature extremes,” Stefan Rahmstorf, a professor of physics of the oceans at Potsdam College, who didn’t contribute to the analysis, advised Carbon Transient.
Uncertainty within the face of great hazard is in fact no motive to disregard it.
Passing that #AMOC tipping level by mid-century appears to be like more and more possible in mild of current research.
And there’s additionally a extra imminent, albeit a bit much less detrimental danger:
bsky.app/profile/rahm…[image or embed]
— Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf (@rahmstorf.bsky.social) June 11, 2025 at 11:38 AM
The “profound cooling” with extra intense winter extremes in northwest Europe can be contrasted with barely cooler summer season temperatures. This could imply Europeans would see dramatic temperature swings all year long.
“The intense winters can be like dwelling in an ice age. However on the similar time summer season temperature extremes are barely impacted – they’re barely cooler than they might be because of international warming, however nonetheless with hotter extremes than the preindustrial local weather,” stated Professor Tim Lenton, College of Exeter chair of local weather change and Earth system science. “This implies the seasonality of the local weather is radically elevated. In excessive years it might be like popping out of the freezer right into a frying pan of summer season heatwaves.”
The examine, “European Temperature Extremes Underneath Completely different AMOC Eventualities within the Neighborhood Earth System Mannequin,” was printed within the journal Geophysical Analysis Letters.
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