E-commerce is rising once more in Europe-5 and is about to rework retail over the subsequent 5 years to seize 21% of complete retail gross sales throughout France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK. However whereas digital purchasing expands, bodily shops stay a vital part of the omnichannel expertise. Highlights from Forrester’s new Europe-5 Retail E-Commerce Forecast, 2025 To 2030 embody:
- Complete retail gross sales: Complete retail gross sales will attain €2.8 trillion in 2030; retail development over the subsequent 5 years will likely be equally divided throughout in-store and e-commerce gross sales. Declining inflation and rates of interest, falling unemployment charges, rising actual earnings per capita, growing retail commerce volumes, and a powerful rebound in tourism have created a optimistic financial local weather that can assist retail gross sales development within the Europe-5 nations over the subsequent 5 years.
- E-commerce gross sales: E-commerce gross sales will account for 21% of complete retail gross sales by 2030. Value, choice, and comfort will drive e-commerce development. Forrester’s Retail Subject Insights 1 Survey, 2025 exhibits that consumers within the UK and France choose on-line purchasing due to its ease, comfort, and adaptability and to seek out the very best costs and offers. A rise within the on-line purchaser inhabitants, cross-border e-commerce development, investments in AI (like these by Zalando in its AI-powered discovery feed), and the growth of low cost Chinese language e-commerce platforms comparable to AliExpress, JoyBuy, SHEIN, and Temu in Europe will contribute to e-commerce development.
Forrester expects retail media spending in Europe to greater than double, reaching $43 billion by 2030. This extremely worthwhile income stream allows retailers to monetize visitors to their owned and operated properties and first-party shopper knowledge. Ahold Delhaize reached e-commerce profitability in H1 2025 by scaling achievement capability, automating operations, and leveraging retail media.
- In-store gross sales: In-store retail gross sales in Europe-5 will attain €2.2 trillion by 2030, with European retailers placing the shop on the middle of their omnichannel experiences. Primark now provides click-and-collect throughout all 187 UK shops, and B&Q added click-and-collect service in its shops for third-party market orders. Carrefour opened 400 new comfort shops in H1 2025 whereas e-commerce revenues grew 16% to achieve €3.4 billion, and Inditex invested €1.8 billion in 2025 to optimize area, tech integration, and on-line platforms.
Our forecast supplies a five-year forecast for complete retail and e-commerce gross sales throughout 22 product classes in Europe-5 nations. The classes embody home equipment; auto components; clothes and footwear; pc {hardware} and peripherals; client books; client electronics; food and drinks; backyard provides, instruments, and residential enchancment; well being merchandise; family items and furnishings; jewellery and watches; private care; sports activities gear; and toys.
Forrester shoppers: Be sure you obtain the accompanying Excel spreadsheet. Need to study extra? Please schedule a steering session with me to debate the forecast intimately.
