Tom Lee says ISM strength could set the stage for a new Bitcoin and Ethereum supercycle

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee mentioned that Bitcoin and Ethereum have traditionally entered sturdy development intervals when the ISM rises above 50.

“So the ISM transferring again above 50 has traditionally been related to really tremendous cycle strikes in Bitcoin and Ethereum,” Lee mentioned in a Wednesday interview with CNBC’s “The Alternate.”

The ISM manufacturing index tracks key US financial traits by the Manufacturing and Companies Indexes. Buying managers report on new orders, manufacturing, employment, provider deliveries, and inventories, that are aggregated right into a diffusion index.

Readings above 50 point out development in financial exercise, whereas readings under 50 sign contraction. The most recent ISM Manufacturing PMI studying is 48.2 for November 2025.

Requested in regards to the ISM index’s hyperlink to Bitcoin, Lee defined that the correlation is powerful after factoring in Bitcoin’s long-term pattern.

“In case you take a look at ISM and Bitcoin and also you detrend Bitcoin, primarily take a look at its distance from the 208, it’s nearly completely correlated to the ISM,” he mentioned.

On Bitcoin’s cycle, the chairman of BitMine countered expectations that the market would observe its typical four-year sample.

Lee appeared to agree with ARK Make investments’s Cathie Wooden, who believes the Bitcoin four-year cycle goes to be disrupted.

He expects new highs for crypto belongings as early as January.

“I believe Bitcoin is a little bit of a chameleon as a result of there’ll most likely be a time when it acts like gold,” Lee mentioned. “However proper now it acts much more prefer it’s delicate to financial coverage and the enterprise cycle. And each are about to show up.”

“That might imply anyone who thinks the Bitcoin four-year cycle means crypto costs are down subsequent yr. We’re betting in opposition to that considering that new highs [will] come early like January,” he added.