With the destiny of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Settlement (
CUSMA
) at present hanging within the steadiness, a brand new survey from
KPMG
reveals the diploma to which
commerce
with the
United States
is of concern to Canadian enterprise leaders.
Of the 501 leaders KPMG surveyed, greater than ninety per cent consider that the best threat to Canada’s economic system is a unfavourable consequence in renegotiating free commerce with the U.S.
Eighty-eight per cent mentioned dropping their current protections below CUSMA is the best threat to their corporations, and 84 per cent count on to pay some quantity of
U.S. tariffs
, even when their items qualify below a brand new commerce settlement.
Whereas the overwhelming majority of survey respondents (88 per cent) agree that the tariffs are having an impact, the affect has been extra average than anticipated. Nonetheless, nearly all of leaders reported that the tariffs have made their companies much less aggressive.
Eighty-two per cent additionally consider that U.S. tariffs towards all international locations, together with Canada, will stay in place.
“Though exemptions for CUSMA-compliant items are offering an escape hatch from many U.S. tariffs, the framework and guidelines could change below a brand new commerce deal sooner or later,” mentioned Pleasure Nott, associate, commerce and customs at KPMG.
“Traditionally, a North American free commerce zone has allowed all three international locations to behave towards world provide chain threats and work collectively in a extremely aggressive world buying and selling setting. Nevertheless, we might see a scenario wherein a bilateral settlement with the U.S. replaces CUSMA in 2026 and alters the taking part in discipline,” mentioned Nott.
4 in 5 enterprise leaders say they’d help a bilateral settlement with the U.S. alone, although a trilateral settlement with Mexico can be most popular. Many leaders mentioned the price of shifting to abroad markets was prohibitively costly, with seventy-three per cent saying they may not afford the added prices related to such a change.
In the interim, many Canadian companies have taken short-term measures to mitigate the challenges introduced by the commerce battle. Sixty-eight per cent reported they’d or had been planning to go alongside the added prices to clients.
An additional 79 per cent of enterprise leaders mentioned they’ve or are planning to scale back their workforce inside the subsequent six months.
The survey additionally mentioned that 93 per cent of respondents agreed that the unpredictable nature of U.S. commerce insurance policies and the price of accessing the American market are among the many most pressing points going through the Canadian economic system.
“The complete impact of U.S. tariffs is barely starting to make its manner via the economic system now. Within the preliminary section, affected companies selected to soak up the tariffs, whereas going ahead we expect to see extra companies go on the tariff prices via to finish customers,” mentioned Lachlan Wolfer of KPMG Regulation.
KPMG’s 2025 Federal Price range Survey was carried out between Sept. 11 and Oct. 2 and requested Canadian enterprise house owners or executives throughout all industries about their priorities forward of the Nov. 4 federal funds.
