Revealed on July 14th, 2025 by Bob Ciura
The S&P 500 has been traditionally overvalued (in hindsight) continuous since 2010 utilizing the Shiller P/E ratio.
The Shiller P/E ratio makes use of a median of 10 years of earnings for the “E” (earnings) within the P/E ratio to clean out outcomes and make the metric related when earnings momentary flip destructive, throughout recessions.
The historic common Shiller P/E ratio is 17.3. It’s presently at 38.1. Due to this fact, the S&P 500 is 121% overvalued in keeping with the Shiller P/E ratio.
The massive takeaway from that is that the market is buying and selling at a really excessive valuation a number of at present, relative to its historical past.
When the market is overvalued, traders ought to look to dividend shares to cut back portfolio volatility, and for dividend earnings which gives a buffer in opposition to falling inventory costs.
For instance, the free excessive dividend shares checklist spreadsheet under has our full checklist of particular person securities (shares, REITs, MLPs, and so forth.) with with 5%+ dividend yields.
Shopping for overvalued dividend shares can jeopardize future returns. Even high quality firms can quantity to mediocre or poor investments, if too excessive value is paid.
Falling valuations can result in low (and even destructive) complete returns, even together with dividends.
Due to this fact, traders must be cautious with regards to overvalued dividend shares. The next 10 overvalued dividend shares must be prevented.
The checklist is sorted by the extent of overvaluation.
Desk of Contents
Overvalued Dividend Inventory #10: Kulicke & Soffa Industries (KLIC)
- Annual Valuation Return: -14.0%
Kulicke & Soffa Industries Inc. is a producer and distributor of manufacturing tools for semiconductor gadgets. The corporate operates in two enterprise segments: Capital Tools and Aftermarket Merchandise & Companies.
It’s headquartered in Singapore and trades on the NASDAQ Change. Kulicke & Soffa has annual revenues of roughly $700 million.
On Could sixth, 2025, Kulicke & Soffa reported outcomes for the second quarter of fiscal yr 2025. For the quarter, income declined 5.8% to $162 million, which was $3.1 million lower than anticipated.
Adjusted earnings-per-share of -$0.52 in contrast favorably to adjusted earnings-per-share of -$0.95 within the prior yr.
For the quarter, Automotive, Common Semi, and Aftermarket Product and Companies had been roughly equal from Q2 2024 whereas Reminiscence declined significantly.
For the quarter, Kulicke & Soffa’s adjusted working margin of (16.9%) was up 1,230 foundation factors year-over-year, however down 2830 foundation factors from Q1 2025.
Click on right here to obtain our most up-to-date Certain Evaluation report on KLIC (preview of web page 1 of three proven under):
Overvalued Dividend Inventory #9: Fortitude Gold (FTCO)
- Annual Valuation Return: -14.3%
Fortitude Gold Company was spun-off from Gold Useful resource Company right into a separate public firm in December 2021. Fortitude Gold is a junior gold producer with operations in Nevada, U.S.A, one of many world’s premier mining pleasant jurisdictions.
The corporate targets high-grade gold open pit heap leach operations averaging one gram per tonne of gold or better. Its property portfolio presently consists of 100% possession in seven high-grade gold properties.
All seven properties are inside an approximate 30-mile radius of each other inside the prolific Walker Lane Mineral Belt. The corporate generated $37.3 million in revenues final yr, nearly all of which had been from gold, and is predicated in Colorado Springs, Colorado.
On April twenty ninth, 2025, Fortitude Gold launched its first-quarter 2025 outcomes for the interval ending March thirty first, 2025. For the quarter, revenues got here in at $6.5 million, marking a 20% decline in comparison with Q1 2024.
The lower in income was largely as a consequence of a 41% drop in gold gross sales quantity and a 26% lower in silver gross sales quantity. These declines had been partially offset by a 38% improve in gold costs and a 38% improve in silver costs.
Shifting to the underside line, Fortitude reported a mine gross revenue of $3.3 million in comparison with $4.2 million the earlier yr, reflecting the decrease web gross sales.
The corporate additionally introduced a discount in its month-to-month dividend from $0.04 to $0.01 per share, efficient with the Could 2025 fee.
Click on right here to obtain our most up-to-date Certain Evaluation report on FTCO (preview of web page 1 of three proven under):
Overvalued Dividend Inventory #8: KKR & Co. (KKR)
- Annual Valuation Return: -15.1%
KKR & Co is a worldwide funding firm with belongings beneath administration (AUM) of $496 billion. KKR operates on 4 enterprise strains: Personal markets, public markets, capital markets, and principal actions.
KKR manages non-public fairness funds that make investments capital for long-term appreciation via the Personal Markets enterprise line.
KKR & Co launched Q1 2025 outcomes on Could 1st, 2025. In Q1, KKR reported fee-related earnings of $823 million, up 23% year-over-year, and complete working earnings of $1.1 billion, which was a 16% improve.
Adjusted web earnings reached $1.0 billion, marking a 20% rise. Charge-related earnings grew 37% to $3.4 billion for the final twelve months, whereas complete working earnings climbed 32% to $4.5 billion.
Adjusted web earnings totaled $4.4 billion, reflecting a 37% improve. KKR’s belongings beneath administration (AUM) rose 15% year-over-year to $664 billion, with fee-paying AUMs up 12% to $526 billion.
Click on right here to obtain our most up-to-date Certain Evaluation report on KKR (preview of web page 1 of three proven under):
Overvalued Dividend Inventory #7: HF Sinclair (DINO)
- Annual Valuation Return: -15.3%
HF Sinclair was initially shaped by the merger of two impartial U.S. refiners, Holly Company and Frontier Oil, in
2011. It operates in three segments: refining, lubricants, and Holly Power Companions, which is a midstream entity.
HF Sinclair must be seen primarily as a refiner. The refining section generated 83% of the overall working earnings in 2023 however posted a loss in 2024 as a consequence of a collapse in refining margins.
On Could 1st, 2025, HF Sinclair reported outcomes for Q1-2025. Refining margins fell -28% over the prior yr’s quarter, because the tailwind from the Ukrainian disaster pale. In consequence, the corporate switched from a revenue per share of $0.71 to a loss per share of -$0.27.
Because of the proximity of its refineries to the home oil manufacturing, HF Sinclair buys its crude oil at a reduction to WTI.
Furthermore, HF Sinclair is prone to profit from the synergies it should obtain from its current acquisitions of the Puget Sound Refinery and Sinclair Oil.
HF Sinclair has the strongest steadiness sheet in its peer group and it might probably endure downturns. The robust steadiness sheet is paramount on this cyclical enterprise.
Click on right here to obtain our most up-to-date Certain Evaluation report on DINO (preview of web page 1 of three proven under):
Overvalued Dividend Inventory #6: Constellation Power (CEG)
- Annual Valuation Return: -15.3%
Constellation Power Company was spun off from Exelon Company on February 1st, 2022. Constellation Power gives clear and sustainable power options to properties, industrial companies, and wholesale prospects corresponding to municipalities and cooperatives.
The corporate’s power merchandise embody electrical, pure fuel, and renewables and markets such merchandise to firms of all sizes.
Constellation Power operates 13 nuclear vegetation with a mixed 21 gigawatts of capability. The corporate operates within the decrease 48 U.S. states, Canada, and the UK.
On January tenth, 2025, the corporate introduced that it had agreed to buy Calpine Corp. utilizing a mixture of money and inventory. This transaction will make Constellation Power the most important clear power supplier within the U.S.
On Could sixth, 2025, Constellation Power reported first quarter outcomes for the interval ending March thirty first, 2025. For the quarter, income grew 8.6% to $6.69 billion, which was $1.35 billion above estimates.
On an adjusted foundation, earnings-per-share totaled $2.14, which in contrast favorably to adjusted earnings-per-share of $1.82 within the prior yr, however was $0.08 under expectations.
Constellation Power’s nuclear fleet produced 45,582 gigawatt-hours within the first quarter, up from 45,391 gigawatt-hours within the prior yr. Nuclear vegetation achieved a 94.1% capability issue, in comparison with 93.3% in Q1 2024.
Click on right here to obtain our most up-to-date Certain Evaluation report on CEG (preview of web page 1 of three proven under):
Overvalued Dividend Inventory #5: Energy Integrations Inc. (POWI)
- Annual Valuation Return: -15.5%
Energy Integrations designs and manufactures high-performance digital parts for high-voltage energy conversion techniques.
Notable merchandise embody the InnoSwitch household of ICs, which integrates main, secondary, and suggestions circuits, and the LYTSwitch ICs, designed for environment friendly LED lighting options.
These merchandise are utilized in cellular system chargers, shopper electronics, lighting, industrial controls, and renewable power techniques.
On Could twelfth, 2025, the corporate reported its Q1 outcomes for the interval ending March thirty first, 2025. For the quarter, the corporate posted web revenues of $105.5 million that had been up barely sequentially, and up 15% year-over-year.
The year-over-year improve was pushed by improved efficiency throughout all main finish markets, with notable energy within the shopper section, which accounted for 44% of complete gross sales within the quarter.
Click on right here to obtain our most up-to-date Certain Evaluation report on POWI (preview of web page 1 of three proven under):
Overvalued Dividend Inventory #4: Hyster Yale (HY)
- Annual Valuation Return: -15.8%
Hyster-Yale Supplies Dealing with was based in 1985 and has since change into a outstanding world participant within the supplies dealing with trade.
The corporate designs, manufactures, and sells a complete vary of carry vehicles and aftermarket components, serving various prospects throughout varied sectors, together with manufacturing, warehousing, and logistics.
The corporate segments its income primarily into three classes: new tools gross sales, components gross sales, and repair revenues.
On Could sixth, 2025, the corporate introduced outcomes for the primary quarter of 2025. The corporate reported Q1 non-GAAP EPS of $0.49, in-line with analysts’ estimates, and produced income of $910.4 million, which was down 14.1% year-over-year.
Hyster-Yale opened the yr with Q1 2025 consolidated revenues of $910 million, down 14% from final yr, as softer carry truck demand carried over from late 2024.
Web earnings dipped to $8.6 million in comparison with $51.5 million a yr in the past, as decrease manufacturing volumes and value pressures weighed on margins. Stock ranges improved, down $69 million versus Q1 2024, exhibiting early progress in aligning manufacturing with present demand developments.
Encouragingly, the carry truck section noticed a notable rebound in bookings, up 13% year-over-year and 48% sequentially, pushed by energy within the Americas and EMEA.
Click on right here to obtain our most up-to-date Certain Evaluation report on HY (preview of web page 1 of three proven under):
Overvalued Dividend Inventory #3: Paramount Sources Ltd. (PRMRF)
- Annual Valuation Return: -16.0%
Paramount Sources is a Canadian power firm. Paramount Sources has a protracted historical past. The corporate was based in 1976 and has been publicly-traded since 1978.
Paramount Sources now owns a much smaller oil and fuel manufacturing base centered on the Kaybob area of Alberta together with the Willesden Inexperienced Duvernay space additionally positioned in Alberta.
The corporate introduced its Q1 2025 outcomes on Could thirteenth, 2025. EPS of C$8.74 skyrocketed from C$0.46 within the prior yr however outcomes should not comparable. The overwhelming majority of that revenue was from positive aspects on current asset gross sales together with receiving insurance coverage claims tied to wildfire injury.
Because the firm just lately offered off nearly all of its manufacturing base, ahead earnings will probably be far decrease. Certainly, money movement from operations slipped from C$1.52 to C$1.01 per share year-over-year.
Analysts are forecasting simply 12 cents of earnings for Q2, which provides a a lot more true reflection of the corporate’s earnings energy post-asset sale.
Click on right here to obtain our most up-to-date Certain Evaluation report on PRMRF (preview of web page 1 of three proven under):
Overvalued Dividend Inventory #2: Wingstop Inc. (WING)
- Annual Valuation Return: -16.1%
Wingstop is headquartered in Addison, Texas and franchises and operates eating places beneath the Wingstop model.
The corporate has a protracted monitor report of excessive development.
Supply: Investor Presentation
On April 30, 2025, Wingstop Inc. reported its monetary outcomes for the fiscal first quarter ended March 29, 2025. The
firm achieved complete income of $171.1 million, marking a 17.4% improve in comparison with the identical interval in 2024.
System-wide gross sales grew by 15.7% to $1.3 billion, pushed by a report 126 web new restaurant openings, representing an 18% web new unit development. Home same-store gross sales skilled a modest improve of 0.5%, whereas company-owned home same-store gross sales grew by 1.4%.
Web earnings surged by 221% to $92.3 million, or $3.24 per diluted share, primarily as a consequence of a $97.2 million achieve from the sale of Wingstop’s non-controlling curiosity in its United Kingdom grasp franchisee, Lemon Pepper Holdings, Ltd.
Adjusted web earnings stood at $28.3 million, or $0.99 per diluted share, surpassing analyst expectations of $0.87 per share. Adjusted EBITDA elevated by 18.4% year-over-year to $59.5 million.
Click on right here to obtain our most up-to-date Certain Evaluation report on WING (preview of web page 1 of three proven under):
Overvalued Dividend Inventory #1: Microchip Expertise (MCHP)
- Annual Valuation Return: -20.9%
Microchip Expertise develops, manufactures, and sells good, linked and safe embedded management options used for all kinds of functions.
These embody disruptive development developments corresponding to 5G, synthetic intelligence, Web of Issues (IoT), and autonomous driving, amongst others, in key finish markets corresponding to automotive, aerospace and protection, communications.
Microchip Expertise generates round $6 billion in annual revenues and is predicated in Chandler, Arizona.
On Could eighth, 2025, Microchip Expertise posted its fiscal This autumn outcomes for the quarter ending March thirty first, 2025. For the quarter, web gross sales had been $970.5 million, down 26.8% from the comparable interval final yr.
Decrease revenues continued to mirror weak enterprise situations within the semiconductor trade, although administration believes this quarter marked the underside of the downcycle. GAAP gross margins declined from 59.6% final yr to 51.6%.
This sustained stress on margins and gross sales led to a web lack of $156.8 million, or $0.29 per diluted share, in comparison with web earnings of $154.7 million, or $0.28 per share, final yr. On an adjusted foundation, EPS was $0.11 versus $0.57 in This autumn-2024.
Click on right here to obtain our most up-to-date Certain Evaluation report on MCHP (preview of web page 1 of three proven under):
Last Ideas
The inventory market has been on a virtually uninterrupted rally for the reason that Nice Recession. After a quick downturn in the course of the coronavirus pandemic, the inventory market has as soon as once more raced to report highs.
In consequence, the S&P 500 is now markedly overvalued in keeping with a number of valuation metrics, such because the Shiller P/E ratio.
Due to this fact, risk-averse earnings traders must be cautious of overvalued dividend shares corresponding to the ten on this article.
If you’re all for discovering high-quality dividend development shares and/or different high-yield securities and earnings securities, the next Certain Dividend sources will probably be helpful:
Excessive-Yield Particular person Safety Analysis
Different Certain Dividend Sources
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