Virginia and New Jersey could also be among the many states most affected by the hiring slowdown that enraged President Donald Trump when it appeared in an Aug. 1 jobs report displaying america had 258,000 fewer jobs than initially reported in Could and June.
Such revisions to earlier reviews are primarily based on extra up-to-date payroll information and are routine. However the scale on this case was surprising — displaying the smallest month-to-month job features since pandemic-era December 2020 and the biggest jobs revision, exterior recessions, since 1968.
In response, Trump declared the numbers have been mistaken, fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics chief, and provided as a substitute E.J. Antoni, a loyalist who has proposed suspending the roles report. Trump falsely stated in a Fact Social publish that the revised jobs numbers have been “RIGGED so as to make the Republicans, and ME, look dangerous.”
Past these attention-grabbing actions, although, the numbers display the actual results of Trump’s work slashing the federal authorities.
A Stateline evaluation of the info reveals how a number of states, particularly Virginia and New Jersey, shed jobs within the second quarter of this yr, which incorporates Could and June.
In Virginia, there have been job losses blamed on canceled federal contracts in Northern Virginia as a part of cuts made by Elon Musk’s Division of Authorities Effectivity, often called DOGE. In the meantime, a sluggish housing market shuttered a plywood manufacturing unit within the southern a part of the state, and DOGE efforts canceled flooding management contracts on the coast.
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Jay Ford, Virginia coverage supervisor on the Chesapeake Bay Basis, advised a state legislative committee in June that $50 million in contracts have been slashed within the Hampton Roads space close to the coast, inflicting a spike in unemployment claims.
That included $20 million to handle flooding in Hampton, the place virtually 1 / 4 of houses are in flood zones, and $24 million to restore a Portsmouth dam that would fail in a significant storm, he stated.
“That is work that you just desperately wanted,” Ford stated on the committee listening to. “There was an actual give attention to sure buzzwords like ‘local weather’ or ‘resilience,’ and I believe individuals conflated a few of these tasks as in some way pointless.”
For example, the American Institutes for Analysis introduced 233 layoffs in Virginia in Could and 50 in Maryland for the reason that starting of the yr. The not-for-profit group’s tasks embody working with college districts to unravel achievement gaps and absenteeism, creating AI-driven workforce coaching, and addressing well being care points akin to enhancing kidney illness care whereas lowering Medicare prices and strengthening entry to well being care by holding rural hospitals open.
“The modifications occurring within the federal authorities have introduced vital challenges for a lot of federal contractors, together with AIR,” stated Dana Tofig, the corporate’s spokesperson.
Different current layoffs in Virginia: 442 staff at Northern Virginia’s Mitre, which manages federally funded protection analysis facilities and confronted $28 million in canceled federal contracts; and 554 staff at a shuttered plywood manufacturing unit in Southern Virginia.
“Housing affordability challenges and a 30-year low in present dwelling gross sales are impacting our plywood enterprise, as lots of our plywood merchandise are utilized in restore and rework tasks, which regularly happen when houses change possession,” Georgia-Pacific stated in a Could information launch.
Stateline checked out two state jobs surveys for the second quarter that generally have fairly totally different outcomes: the so-called payroll survey of companies that the Bureau of Labor Statistics makes use of for its month-to-month report, which has but to be revised on the state degree, and the BLS Native Space Unemployment Statistics program, which estimates job modifications primarily based on month-to-month family surveys.
The LAUS estimates are sometimes referred to as the “family” survey as a result of they rely totally on surveys of households, asking how many individuals are employed. They embody jobs the payroll survey can’t get, akin to contract and agricultural jobs, and seize jobs the place individuals reside quite than states the place employers are positioned.
In a state like Virginia with a excessive variety of federal staff and contract staff, misplaced jobs might present up sooner within the family survey since many federal jobs should not mirrored on state-level payrolls if they’re achieved by subcontractors, if the company or contractor relies in one other state, or if DOGE cuts allowed individuals to cease work however keep on the payroll till September. These individuals may report being unemployed within the family survey however wouldn’t present up in different surveys till October.
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The family survey reveals about the identical variety of slowing job features because the revised nationwide payroll report, so it might be a window into the tendencies, many brought on by Trump administration cuts in authorities, well being care and international support, and in addition by slowing gross sales in shops and housing markets.
Each surveys depend on small samples and are sometimes revised later, stated Charles Gascon, an economist and analysis officer on the Federal Reserve Financial institution of St. Louis. The extra definitive Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, set for launch Dec. 3 for the second quarter, will present state patterns extra conclusively, he stated.
The family surveys present Virginia with the biggest job losses within the nation for the second quarter, down about 43,000, and job losses each month since February. Earlier than that, the state gained jobs each month for the reason that peak of pandemic job losses in April 2020.
New Jersey, which had essentially the most job losses — 15,400 — within the separate second-quarter payroll survey, has suffered layoffs in retail shops hit by a slowdown in client spending, elevated shoplifting and, amongst drugstores, lawsuits for his or her function within the opioid epidemic.
Walmart introduced 481 layoffs at its Hoboken, New Jersey, company workplace, and Ceremony Support drugstores laid off 1,122 amid Chapter 11 chapter affected by opioid disaster lawsuits that additionally hit Walmart and different pharmacy chains. Pharma companies Bristol Myers Squibb and Novartis even have introduced a whole lot of layoffs in New Jersey, citing patent expirations on in style medication.
Wobbly state funds
Rising unemployment mixed with weak income progress suggests “financial fragility” for state funds, stated Lucy Dadayan, a principal analysis affiliate for the City-Brookings Tax Coverage Middle who tracks state tax income.
Nationally, unemployment was at 4.2% in July, the identical as July 2024 however up from current lows of three.4% in April 2023, with the biggest will increase in Mississippi, Virginia and Oregon.
Unemployment has dropped essentially the most in contrast with July 2024 in Indiana, Illinois, New York and West Virginia.
The states with the very best unemployment charges in July have been California (5.5%), Nevada (5.4%) and Michigan (5.3%), whereas the bottom have been in South Dakota (1.9%), North Dakota (2.5%) and Vermont (2.6%).
“I believe the dramatic Could and June jobs revision indicators financial fragility. State-level warning indicators recommend the impacts will present steadily,” Dadayan stated. “And naturally states are dealing with fiscal challenges brought on by One Huge Lovely Invoice Act tax and spending choices.”
State funds are a combined image, with earnings tax collections rising due to a robust inventory market and gross sales tax progress weak as customers retreat on spending, Dadayan stated.
State layoff figures are giving us an early learn.
– Amanda Goodall, a workforce analyst often called “The Job Chick” on social media
In Virginia, the economically distressed space round Emporia will endure aftershocks from the plywood plant closing, stated Del. Otto Wachsmann, a Republican who represents the world within the state Home of Delegates. The realm is already reeling from the indefinite closure of a close-by Boar’s Head lunch meat plant that employed 600 individuals after a listeria outbreak there final yr.
The group, a part of the southern “Wooden Basket” area, has a big logging business that may now battle to search out new markets farther away with greater prices for trucking, Wachsmann stated. “We’re working exhausting to search out new industries to come back right here.”
Layoff charges in April, as calculated by the web human sources platform Techr, confirmed New Jersey, Vermont and Virginia with the very best charges.
Amanda Goodall, a workforce analyst who calls herself “The Job Chick” on social media, stated the layoffs mirror restructuring in main companies in addition to federal cutbacks. She wrote concerning the layoff charges in a current publish.
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“These should not statistical flukes. They mirror actual company strikes, in New Jersey and Virginia particularly,” Goodall wrote in an emailed assertion to Stateline. “The larger problem is that no person on the bottom cares what the unemployment charge says if they will’t discover an interview for a job they’re certified for. State layoff figures are giving us an early learn.”
California and Texas
California and Texas noticed the most important jobs features in each surveys within the second quarter.
Texas added 42,700 jobs within the payroll survey, with the biggest improve coming within the class of personal instructional companies, 14,400 jobs, because the state accredited a plan for varsity vouchers to begin subsequent yr, in keeping with an announcement to Stateline from the Texas Workforce Fee.
California added 25,300 jobs. However the family survey confirmed a rise of virtually 111,000 jobs, the very best within the nation.
A Public Coverage Institute of California weblog publish in July referred to as the state’s labor market “at finest, in a hold-steady sample this yr,” citing the state’s stubbornly elevated unemployment charge of 5.4% but in addition its jobs enchancment over final yr.
“A hold-steady sample is a welcome change from a yr in the past,” stated the publish, written by Sarah Bohn, a senior fellow on the institute.
Stateline reporter Tim Henderson might be reached at [email protected].
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