President
Donald Trump’s
push to rebuild
Venezuela’s oil trade
may come on the expense of producers nearer to dwelling.
U.S. shale oil
is “on the cliff edge,” warn the commodities workforce at BofA World Analysis, and one of many elements that would push it off that cliff is a pro-market authorities in Venezuela.
“With costs falling and OPEC+ including extra volumes into the market, U.S. shale oil provide development is grinding to a halt. With U.S. shale on the cliff edge, it’s all about the place costs go subsequent from right here,” strategists mentioned in a notice.
The place they’re prone to go is decrease.
Goldman Sachs now forecasts that
West Texas Intermediate costs
will common US$52 a barrel in 2026, with costs bottoming at US$50 within the final quarter as inventories construct.
BofA strategists, writing earlier than the
U.S. raid on Venezuela
and seize of chief Nicolás Maduro, estimated that if oil averaged US$57 this 12 months U.S. shale oil output may shrink by 70,000 barrels or 1 per cent.
“Nevertheless, a number of draw back dangers may push crude oil costs and U.S. shale manufacturing considerably decrease,” they mentioned. These embody peace in Ukraine, a pro-market authorities in Venezuela and a worsening financial outlook.
Shale oil manufacturing, which makes use of a method referred to as “fracking,” is dearer than most different types of extraction and drillers want WTI above US$60 to show a revenue. Producers have coped with decrease costs by reducing again on drilling, although over the previous decade of all of the shale oil areas within the U.S. solely the Permian Basin in Texas has proven output development, mentioned BofA.
World oil costs have already been falling since mid-2024 as provides swelled. Whole weekly petroleum inventories, together with stockpiles in China and oil at sea, are actually about to breach ranges not seen for the reason that glut throughout the pandemic, mentioned the strategists.
Even a marginal enhance to Venezuelan oil output within the coming months may add to that surplus and probably push costs decrease.
“A sustained drop beneath US$50 a barrel — the profitability threshold for a lot of corporations — may cripple the U.S. shale trade, which has strongly supported Trump,”
mentioned the Wall Road Journal.
There is no such thing as a query Venezuela is an enormous oil useful resource. It holds the world’s largest confirmed crude reserves, 17 per cent of the worldwide complete, however the trade has suffered from years of instability and neglect. From a manufacturing peak within the late ’90s of three million barrels a day, output has fallen to simply over 1 million.
Whereas rebuilding will take some huge cash and time, WSJ experiences that some members of OPEC imagine that if the nation’s administration makes the oil trade extra enticing to buyers it may enhance output by 2 million barrels a day inside one to a few years.
U.S. producers aren’t blissful about it.
Trump’s push to get Venezuelan oil to market has strained relations with Texas oil executives, a lot of whom supported his re-election,
the Monetary Occasions experiences.
Friday, Trump met with U.S. oil majors with deep sufficient pockets to spend money on Venezuela, however executives at giant unbiased drillers weren’t invited.
“To me, the sign from the administration is: we’d quite spend our American cash on propping up a Venezuelan oil enterprise than supporting our present unbiased companies,” Kirk Edwards, chief government of Latigo Petroleum, a non-public producer based mostly in Odessa, Texas, instructed the FT. Edwards donated to the president’s re-election marketing campaign.
The market can be betting a Venezuelan oil surge would harm these producers, mentioned the FT. Shares in unbiased U.S. oil corporations Diamondback Vitality Inc., APA Corp. and Devon Vitality Corp. misplaced as much as 9 per cent final week.
Join right here to get Posthaste delivered straight to your inbox.
Canada’s job market got here again to earth in December, economists say. The
economic system gained 8,200 jobs
, far lower than the common of 60,000 positions a month from September to November. Not solely that, the unemployment fee jumped to six.8 per cent from 6.5 per cent because the variety of folks in search of work exceeded the roles out there.
Friday’s knowledge additionally cooled expectations of a Financial institution of Canada fee hike this 12 months. Markets had put 70 per cent odds on the central financial institution elevating its benchmark fee by the ultimate assembly of 2026, however that slipped to about 60 per cent after the information got here out.
- Prime Minister Mark Carney will meet with Chinese language President Xi Jinping when he travels to China this week, the primary go to to China by a Canadian prime minister since 2017. Carney may also cease in Doha, Qatar, on Jan. 18 earlier than heading to Davos, Switzerland, to attend the World Financial Discussion board assembly on Jan. 19.
- December jobs report probably kills probabilities of Financial institution of Canada fee hike this 12 months, economists say
- Why HELOCs make a heck of loads of sense in 2026
- Jennifer’s CPP, OAS and pension might not be sufficient revenue. Will RRSP, TFSA and different property permit her to retire?
Gen Z Canadians are rewiring the spending priorities of older generations, however that doesn’t imply they’re settling for much less or are making poor monetary selections.
Discover out extra
about their targets and methods right here.
Concerned with vitality? The subscriber-only FP West: Vitality Insider publication brings you unique reporting and in-depth evaluation on one of many nation’s most essential sectors.
Join right here.
McLister on mortgages
Need to study extra about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s
Monetary Put up column
can assist navigate the complicated sector, from the most recent traits to financing alternatives you gained’t need to miss. Plus examine his
mortgage fee web page
for Canada’s lowest nationwide mortgage charges, up to date each day.
Monetary Put up on YouTube
Go to the Monetary Put up’s
YouTube channel
for interviews with Canada’s main consultants in enterprise, economics, housing, the vitality sector and extra.
Immediately’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with further reporting from Monetary Put up employees, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.
Have a narrative thought, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this article? E mail us at
.
Bookmark our web site and help our journalism: Don’t miss the enterprise information you should know — add financialpost.com to your bookmarks and join our newsletters right here
President
Donald Trump’s
push to rebuild
Venezuela’s oil trade
may come on the expense of producers nearer to dwelling.
U.S. shale oil
is “on the cliff edge,” warn the commodities workforce at BofA World Analysis, and one of many elements that would push it off that cliff is a pro-market authorities in Venezuela.
“With costs falling and OPEC+ including extra volumes into the market, U.S. shale oil provide development is grinding to a halt. With U.S. shale on the cliff edge, it’s all about the place costs go subsequent from right here,” strategists mentioned in a notice.
The place they’re prone to go is decrease.
Goldman Sachs now forecasts that
West Texas Intermediate costs
will common US$52 a barrel in 2026, with costs bottoming at US$50 within the final quarter as inventories construct.
BofA strategists, writing earlier than the
U.S. raid on Venezuela
and seize of chief Nicolás Maduro, estimated that if oil averaged US$57 this 12 months U.S. shale oil output may shrink by 70,000 barrels or 1 per cent.
“Nevertheless, a number of draw back dangers may push crude oil costs and U.S. shale manufacturing considerably decrease,” they mentioned. These embody peace in Ukraine, a pro-market authorities in Venezuela and a worsening financial outlook.
Shale oil manufacturing, which makes use of a method referred to as “fracking,” is dearer than most different types of extraction and drillers want WTI above US$60 to show a revenue. Producers have coped with decrease costs by reducing again on drilling, although over the previous decade of all of the shale oil areas within the U.S. solely the Permian Basin in Texas has proven output development, mentioned BofA.
World oil costs have already been falling since mid-2024 as provides swelled. Whole weekly petroleum inventories, together with stockpiles in China and oil at sea, are actually about to breach ranges not seen for the reason that glut throughout the pandemic, mentioned the strategists.
Even a marginal enhance to Venezuelan oil output within the coming months may add to that surplus and probably push costs decrease.
“A sustained drop beneath US$50 a barrel — the profitability threshold for a lot of corporations — may cripple the U.S. shale trade, which has strongly supported Trump,”
mentioned the Wall Road Journal.
There is no such thing as a query Venezuela is an enormous oil useful resource. It holds the world’s largest confirmed crude reserves, 17 per cent of the worldwide complete, however the trade has suffered from years of instability and neglect. From a manufacturing peak within the late ’90s of three million barrels a day, output has fallen to simply over 1 million.
Whereas rebuilding will take some huge cash and time, WSJ experiences that some members of OPEC imagine that if the nation’s administration makes the oil trade extra enticing to buyers it may enhance output by 2 million barrels a day inside one to a few years.
U.S. producers aren’t blissful about it.
Trump’s push to get Venezuelan oil to market has strained relations with Texas oil executives, a lot of whom supported his re-election,
the Monetary Occasions experiences.
Friday, Trump met with U.S. oil majors with deep sufficient pockets to spend money on Venezuela, however executives at giant unbiased drillers weren’t invited.
“To me, the sign from the administration is: we’d quite spend our American cash on propping up a Venezuelan oil enterprise than supporting our present unbiased companies,” Kirk Edwards, chief government of Latigo Petroleum, a non-public producer based mostly in Odessa, Texas, instructed the FT. Edwards donated to the president’s re-election marketing campaign.
The market can be betting a Venezuelan oil surge would harm these producers, mentioned the FT. Shares in unbiased U.S. oil corporations Diamondback Vitality Inc., APA Corp. and Devon Vitality Corp. misplaced as much as 9 per cent final week.
Join right here to get Posthaste delivered straight to your inbox.
Canada’s job market got here again to earth in December, economists say. The
economic system gained 8,200 jobs
, far lower than the common of 60,000 positions a month from September to November. Not solely that, the unemployment fee jumped to six.8 per cent from 6.5 per cent because the variety of folks in search of work exceeded the roles out there.
Friday’s knowledge additionally cooled expectations of a Financial institution of Canada fee hike this 12 months. Markets had put 70 per cent odds on the central financial institution elevating its benchmark fee by the ultimate assembly of 2026, however that slipped to about 60 per cent after the information got here out.
- Prime Minister Mark Carney will meet with Chinese language President Xi Jinping when he travels to China this week, the primary go to to China by a Canadian prime minister since 2017. Carney may also cease in Doha, Qatar, on Jan. 18 earlier than heading to Davos, Switzerland, to attend the World Financial Discussion board assembly on Jan. 19.
- December jobs report probably kills probabilities of Financial institution of Canada fee hike this 12 months, economists say
- Why HELOCs make a heck of loads of sense in 2026
- Jennifer’s CPP, OAS and pension might not be sufficient revenue. Will RRSP, TFSA and different property permit her to retire?
Gen Z Canadians are rewiring the spending priorities of older generations, however that doesn’t imply they’re settling for much less or are making poor monetary selections.
Discover out extra
about their targets and methods right here.
Concerned with vitality? The subscriber-only FP West: Vitality Insider publication brings you unique reporting and in-depth evaluation on one of many nation’s most essential sectors.
Join right here.
McLister on mortgages
Need to study extra about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s
Monetary Put up column
can assist navigate the complicated sector, from the most recent traits to financing alternatives you gained’t need to miss. Plus examine his
mortgage fee web page
for Canada’s lowest nationwide mortgage charges, up to date each day.
Monetary Put up on YouTube
Go to the Monetary Put up’s
YouTube channel
for interviews with Canada’s main consultants in enterprise, economics, housing, the vitality sector and extra.
Immediately’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with further reporting from Monetary Put up employees, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.
Have a narrative thought, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this article? E mail us at
.
Bookmark our web site and help our journalism: Don’t miss the enterprise information you should know — add financialpost.com to your bookmarks and join our newsletters right here
President
Donald Trump’s
push to rebuild
Venezuela’s oil trade
may come on the expense of producers nearer to dwelling.
U.S. shale oil
is “on the cliff edge,” warn the commodities workforce at BofA World Analysis, and one of many elements that would push it off that cliff is a pro-market authorities in Venezuela.
“With costs falling and OPEC+ including extra volumes into the market, U.S. shale oil provide development is grinding to a halt. With U.S. shale on the cliff edge, it’s all about the place costs go subsequent from right here,” strategists mentioned in a notice.
The place they’re prone to go is decrease.
Goldman Sachs now forecasts that
West Texas Intermediate costs
will common US$52 a barrel in 2026, with costs bottoming at US$50 within the final quarter as inventories construct.
BofA strategists, writing earlier than the
U.S. raid on Venezuela
and seize of chief Nicolás Maduro, estimated that if oil averaged US$57 this 12 months U.S. shale oil output may shrink by 70,000 barrels or 1 per cent.
“Nevertheless, a number of draw back dangers may push crude oil costs and U.S. shale manufacturing considerably decrease,” they mentioned. These embody peace in Ukraine, a pro-market authorities in Venezuela and a worsening financial outlook.
Shale oil manufacturing, which makes use of a method referred to as “fracking,” is dearer than most different types of extraction and drillers want WTI above US$60 to show a revenue. Producers have coped with decrease costs by reducing again on drilling, although over the previous decade of all of the shale oil areas within the U.S. solely the Permian Basin in Texas has proven output development, mentioned BofA.
World oil costs have already been falling since mid-2024 as provides swelled. Whole weekly petroleum inventories, together with stockpiles in China and oil at sea, are actually about to breach ranges not seen for the reason that glut throughout the pandemic, mentioned the strategists.
Even a marginal enhance to Venezuelan oil output within the coming months may add to that surplus and probably push costs decrease.
“A sustained drop beneath US$50 a barrel — the profitability threshold for a lot of corporations — may cripple the U.S. shale trade, which has strongly supported Trump,”
mentioned the Wall Road Journal.
There is no such thing as a query Venezuela is an enormous oil useful resource. It holds the world’s largest confirmed crude reserves, 17 per cent of the worldwide complete, however the trade has suffered from years of instability and neglect. From a manufacturing peak within the late ’90s of three million barrels a day, output has fallen to simply over 1 million.
Whereas rebuilding will take some huge cash and time, WSJ experiences that some members of OPEC imagine that if the nation’s administration makes the oil trade extra enticing to buyers it may enhance output by 2 million barrels a day inside one to a few years.
U.S. producers aren’t blissful about it.
Trump’s push to get Venezuelan oil to market has strained relations with Texas oil executives, a lot of whom supported his re-election,
the Monetary Occasions experiences.
Friday, Trump met with U.S. oil majors with deep sufficient pockets to spend money on Venezuela, however executives at giant unbiased drillers weren’t invited.
“To me, the sign from the administration is: we’d quite spend our American cash on propping up a Venezuelan oil enterprise than supporting our present unbiased companies,” Kirk Edwards, chief government of Latigo Petroleum, a non-public producer based mostly in Odessa, Texas, instructed the FT. Edwards donated to the president’s re-election marketing campaign.
The market can be betting a Venezuelan oil surge would harm these producers, mentioned the FT. Shares in unbiased U.S. oil corporations Diamondback Vitality Inc., APA Corp. and Devon Vitality Corp. misplaced as much as 9 per cent final week.
Join right here to get Posthaste delivered straight to your inbox.
Canada’s job market got here again to earth in December, economists say. The
economic system gained 8,200 jobs
, far lower than the common of 60,000 positions a month from September to November. Not solely that, the unemployment fee jumped to six.8 per cent from 6.5 per cent because the variety of folks in search of work exceeded the roles out there.
Friday’s knowledge additionally cooled expectations of a Financial institution of Canada fee hike this 12 months. Markets had put 70 per cent odds on the central financial institution elevating its benchmark fee by the ultimate assembly of 2026, however that slipped to about 60 per cent after the information got here out.
- Prime Minister Mark Carney will meet with Chinese language President Xi Jinping when he travels to China this week, the primary go to to China by a Canadian prime minister since 2017. Carney may also cease in Doha, Qatar, on Jan. 18 earlier than heading to Davos, Switzerland, to attend the World Financial Discussion board assembly on Jan. 19.
- December jobs report probably kills probabilities of Financial institution of Canada fee hike this 12 months, economists say
- Why HELOCs make a heck of loads of sense in 2026
- Jennifer’s CPP, OAS and pension might not be sufficient revenue. Will RRSP, TFSA and different property permit her to retire?
Gen Z Canadians are rewiring the spending priorities of older generations, however that doesn’t imply they’re settling for much less or are making poor monetary selections.
Discover out extra
about their targets and methods right here.
Concerned with vitality? The subscriber-only FP West: Vitality Insider publication brings you unique reporting and in-depth evaluation on one of many nation’s most essential sectors.
Join right here.
McLister on mortgages
Need to study extra about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s
Monetary Put up column
can assist navigate the complicated sector, from the most recent traits to financing alternatives you gained’t need to miss. Plus examine his
mortgage fee web page
for Canada’s lowest nationwide mortgage charges, up to date each day.
Monetary Put up on YouTube
Go to the Monetary Put up’s
YouTube channel
for interviews with Canada’s main consultants in enterprise, economics, housing, the vitality sector and extra.
Immediately’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with further reporting from Monetary Put up employees, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.
Have a narrative thought, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this article? E mail us at
.
Bookmark our web site and help our journalism: Don’t miss the enterprise information you should know — add financialpost.com to your bookmarks and join our newsletters right here
President
Donald Trump’s
push to rebuild
Venezuela’s oil trade
may come on the expense of producers nearer to dwelling.
U.S. shale oil
is “on the cliff edge,” warn the commodities workforce at BofA World Analysis, and one of many elements that would push it off that cliff is a pro-market authorities in Venezuela.
“With costs falling and OPEC+ including extra volumes into the market, U.S. shale oil provide development is grinding to a halt. With U.S. shale on the cliff edge, it’s all about the place costs go subsequent from right here,” strategists mentioned in a notice.
The place they’re prone to go is decrease.
Goldman Sachs now forecasts that
West Texas Intermediate costs
will common US$52 a barrel in 2026, with costs bottoming at US$50 within the final quarter as inventories construct.
BofA strategists, writing earlier than the
U.S. raid on Venezuela
and seize of chief Nicolás Maduro, estimated that if oil averaged US$57 this 12 months U.S. shale oil output may shrink by 70,000 barrels or 1 per cent.
“Nevertheless, a number of draw back dangers may push crude oil costs and U.S. shale manufacturing considerably decrease,” they mentioned. These embody peace in Ukraine, a pro-market authorities in Venezuela and a worsening financial outlook.
Shale oil manufacturing, which makes use of a method referred to as “fracking,” is dearer than most different types of extraction and drillers want WTI above US$60 to show a revenue. Producers have coped with decrease costs by reducing again on drilling, although over the previous decade of all of the shale oil areas within the U.S. solely the Permian Basin in Texas has proven output development, mentioned BofA.
World oil costs have already been falling since mid-2024 as provides swelled. Whole weekly petroleum inventories, together with stockpiles in China and oil at sea, are actually about to breach ranges not seen for the reason that glut throughout the pandemic, mentioned the strategists.
Even a marginal enhance to Venezuelan oil output within the coming months may add to that surplus and probably push costs decrease.
“A sustained drop beneath US$50 a barrel — the profitability threshold for a lot of corporations — may cripple the U.S. shale trade, which has strongly supported Trump,”
mentioned the Wall Road Journal.
There is no such thing as a query Venezuela is an enormous oil useful resource. It holds the world’s largest confirmed crude reserves, 17 per cent of the worldwide complete, however the trade has suffered from years of instability and neglect. From a manufacturing peak within the late ’90s of three million barrels a day, output has fallen to simply over 1 million.
Whereas rebuilding will take some huge cash and time, WSJ experiences that some members of OPEC imagine that if the nation’s administration makes the oil trade extra enticing to buyers it may enhance output by 2 million barrels a day inside one to a few years.
U.S. producers aren’t blissful about it.
Trump’s push to get Venezuelan oil to market has strained relations with Texas oil executives, a lot of whom supported his re-election,
the Monetary Occasions experiences.
Friday, Trump met with U.S. oil majors with deep sufficient pockets to spend money on Venezuela, however executives at giant unbiased drillers weren’t invited.
“To me, the sign from the administration is: we’d quite spend our American cash on propping up a Venezuelan oil enterprise than supporting our present unbiased companies,” Kirk Edwards, chief government of Latigo Petroleum, a non-public producer based mostly in Odessa, Texas, instructed the FT. Edwards donated to the president’s re-election marketing campaign.
The market can be betting a Venezuelan oil surge would harm these producers, mentioned the FT. Shares in unbiased U.S. oil corporations Diamondback Vitality Inc., APA Corp. and Devon Vitality Corp. misplaced as much as 9 per cent final week.
Join right here to get Posthaste delivered straight to your inbox.
Canada’s job market got here again to earth in December, economists say. The
economic system gained 8,200 jobs
, far lower than the common of 60,000 positions a month from September to November. Not solely that, the unemployment fee jumped to six.8 per cent from 6.5 per cent because the variety of folks in search of work exceeded the roles out there.
Friday’s knowledge additionally cooled expectations of a Financial institution of Canada fee hike this 12 months. Markets had put 70 per cent odds on the central financial institution elevating its benchmark fee by the ultimate assembly of 2026, however that slipped to about 60 per cent after the information got here out.
- Prime Minister Mark Carney will meet with Chinese language President Xi Jinping when he travels to China this week, the primary go to to China by a Canadian prime minister since 2017. Carney may also cease in Doha, Qatar, on Jan. 18 earlier than heading to Davos, Switzerland, to attend the World Financial Discussion board assembly on Jan. 19.
- December jobs report probably kills probabilities of Financial institution of Canada fee hike this 12 months, economists say
- Why HELOCs make a heck of loads of sense in 2026
- Jennifer’s CPP, OAS and pension might not be sufficient revenue. Will RRSP, TFSA and different property permit her to retire?
Gen Z Canadians are rewiring the spending priorities of older generations, however that doesn’t imply they’re settling for much less or are making poor monetary selections.
Discover out extra
about their targets and methods right here.
Concerned with vitality? The subscriber-only FP West: Vitality Insider publication brings you unique reporting and in-depth evaluation on one of many nation’s most essential sectors.
Join right here.
McLister on mortgages
Need to study extra about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s
Monetary Put up column
can assist navigate the complicated sector, from the most recent traits to financing alternatives you gained’t need to miss. Plus examine his
mortgage fee web page
for Canada’s lowest nationwide mortgage charges, up to date each day.
Monetary Put up on YouTube
Go to the Monetary Put up’s
YouTube channel
for interviews with Canada’s main consultants in enterprise, economics, housing, the vitality sector and extra.
Immediately’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with further reporting from Monetary Put up employees, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.
Have a narrative thought, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this article? E mail us at
.
Bookmark our web site and help our journalism: Don’t miss the enterprise information you should know — add financialpost.com to your bookmarks and join our newsletters right here
