Dividend Stocks Versus Bonds In 2025 | Which Is Better?

Up to date on Could sixteenth, 2025 by Bob Ciura

Selecting the best asset class is likely one of the largest questions for buyers. The dividend stocks-versus-bonds debate continues, as these are the biggest two asset courses.

We imagine the objective of any investor needs to be both:

• Maximize returns given a set stage of threat
• Decrease threat given a set stage of desired returns

Incorporating each return and threat into an funding technique might be tough. Whereas efficiency is straightforward to measure, threat might be tougher to quantify.

Volatility is a standard measure of threat. Volatility is a inventory’s tendency to ‘bounce round’. Low volatility shares will produce constant returns, whereas excessive volatility shares have extra unpredictable return sequences.

With this in thoughts, dividend shares have traditionally produced superior complete returns in comparison with their mounted revenue counterparts.

It is because established dividend shares just like the Dividend Aristocrats – shares with 25+ years of consecutive dividend will increase – have generated superior efficiency that greater than offsets their larger volatility relative to bonds.

You possibly can obtain the complete record of all 69 Dividend Aristocrats (together with metrics that matter comparable to price-to-earnings ratios and payout ratios) by clicking on the hyperlink beneath:

Disclaimer: Certain Dividend isn’t affiliated with S&P World in any manner. S&P World owns and maintains The Dividend Aristocrats Index. The data on this article and downloadable spreadsheet is predicated on Certain Dividend’s personal assessment, abstract, and evaluation of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) and different sources, and is supposed to assist particular person buyers higher perceive this ETF and the index upon which it’s primarily based. Not one of the info on this article or spreadsheet is official knowledge from S&P World. Seek the advice of S&P World for official info.

For that reason, we imagine dividend shares are a compelling funding alternative when in comparison with bonds – their largest ‘competitor’ as an funding.

This text will evaluate the risk-adjusted returns of dividend shares and bonds intimately.

The article will conclude by detailing a number of actionable ways in which buyers can enhance the risk-adjusted returns of their portfolio.

Measuring Danger-Adjusted Returns

The most typical metric to measure risk-adjusted returns is the Sharpe Ratio. By understanding the Sharpe Ratio of the 2 main asset courses, buyers can come slightly nearer to settling the dividend shares vs. bonds debate.

Associated: The Highest Sharpe Ratio Shares Inside The S&P 500

The Sharpe Ratio measures how a lot extra return is generated for every unit of threat. It’s calculated with the next equation:

One of many tough parts of performing a Sharpe Ratio evaluation is figuring out what to make use of for the risk-free charge of return.

When analyzing shares, the 10-year U.S. authorities bond yield is commonly used, because the likelihood of a default from the U.S. Authorities is usually assumed to be zero.

Nonetheless, this text can be analyzing each shares and bonds, so utilizing a 10-year bond yield because the risk-free charge can be inappropriate (as it’s going to assign a Sharpe Ratio of zero to fixed-income devices).

Accordingly, the yield on the 3-month U.S. Treasury Invoice can be used because the risk-free charge of return all through this text.

For reference, the 3-month Treasury Invoice yield is 4.35% proper now.

Subsequent, we have to choose applicable benchmarks by which to measure the efficiency of dividend shares and bonds.

As a proxy for dividend shares, this evaluation will use the iShares Choose Dividend ETF (DVY). This ETF is benchmarked to the Dow Jones U.S. Choose Dividend Index.

Usually, I would like to make use of a dividend ETF that tracks the efficiency of the Dividend Aristocrats, which is our favourite universe for figuring out high-quality dividend shares.

Sadly, the ETF which finest tracks the efficiency of the Dividend Aristocrats index is the ProShare S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL).

This ETF has solely been buying and selling since 2013 and thus isn’t a great proxy for long-term funding returns. DVY has been buying and selling since 2003 and has a for much longer observe report for which to make comparisons.

As such, DVY can be used to characterize dividend shares throughout this evaluation.

For bonds, we’ll be utilizing the iShares Core U.S. Combination Bond ETF, which trades on the New York Inventory Change beneath the ticker AGG. The fund is benchmarked to the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Combination Bond Index.

The subsequent part of this text compares the efficiency of those two asset courses intimately.

Dividend Shares vs. Bonds: Evaluating Danger-Adjusted Returns

The trailing 1-year Sharpe Ratio for dividend shares and bonds might be seen beneath.

Supply: YCharts

In relation to dividend shares vs. bonds, bonds have a better 1-year Sharpe Ratio.

Whereas it seems that dividend shares are inclined to have a better Sharpe Ratio than a diversified basket of bonds throughout most time durations, there are notable stretches (together with the 2007-2009 monetary disaster) the place this didn’t maintain true.

Certainly, dividend shares have outperformed bonds over the previous decade. This pattern is healthier illustrated beneath.

Supply: YCharts

Prior to now 10 years, DVY has generated a complete annualized return of 9.1%, almost eight proportion factors larger than AGG.

In consequence, the dividend shares vs. bonds battle appears to have a transparent winner, a minimum of so far as the previous decade goes.

There are two explanation why we stay far extra bullish on dividend shares than on bonds:

1. Dividend shares have delivered larger absolute returns than bonds throughout all significant time durations. Generally, ‘risk-adjusted returns’ aren’t a very powerful metric in the event that they expose you to the chance of compounding your wealth at charges which are extremely insufficient. For instance, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yields about 4.48% whereas many dividend shares have larger dividend yields.
2. We’re coming to the tip of a multi-decade bull market in bonds. Bond costs fall whereas rates of interest rise.

Altogether, we stay satisfied that dividend progress investing is likely one of the finest methods to compound particular person wealth. With that stated, there are counter-arguments to shares versus bonds.

The subsequent part of this text will describe actionable strategies that buyers can use to enhance the risk-adjusted returns of their funding portfolios.

Bettering Danger-Adjusted Returns

Trying again to the method for the Sharpe Ratio, there are mathematically 3 ways to extend this metric:

• Enhance funding returns
• Scale back the risk-free charge of return
• Scale back portfolio volatility

Whereas these three components are mathematical variables, buyers truly haven’t any management over the risk-free charge of return. Accordingly, this part will concentrate on rising funding efficiency and decreasing portfolio volatility.

Many buyers mistakenly imagine that they haven’t any management over the efficiency of their investments and resort to index investing (extra particularly, ETF investing) to match the efficiency of some benchmark.

This isn’t essentially the case. There are a lot of tendencies that buyers can make the most of to extend portfolio returns.

One instance is the statement that shares with steadily rising dividends are inclined to outperform the market. Firms which are capable of enhance their annual dividend funds for years (and even a long time) clearly have a sturdy aggressive benefit which permits them to stay extremely worthwhile by way of numerous market cycles.

Accordingly, we view an extended dividend historical past as an indication of a high-quality enterprise.

There is no such thing as a higher instance of this than the aforementioned Dividend Aristocrats, which have almost matched the efficiency of the S&P 500 whereas producing much less volatility – a pattern which is proven beneath.

Supply: S&P Reality Sheet

Buyers may additionally contemplate investing within the much more unique Dividend Kings. To be a Dividend King, an organization should have 50+ years of consecutive dividend will increase – twice the requirement to be a Dividend Aristocrat.

You possibly can see the complete record of all Dividend Kings right here.

For a extra broad universe of shares, the Dividend Achievers Checklist accommodates roughly ~400 shares with 10+ years of consecutive dividend will increase.

Except for investing in high-quality companies, buyers can even enhance returns by investing in shares which are low-cost in comparison with each the remainder of the market and the inventory’s historic common.

The standard metric that’s used to measure valuation is the price-to-earnings ratio, however dividend yields are also indicative of an organization’s present valuation.

If a inventory is buying and selling above its long-term common dividend yield, its valuation is extra enticing.

For this reason the Certain Dividend Publication ranks shares by dividend yield in line with The 8 Guidelines of Dividend Investing. 

Lastly, buyers can even enhance risk-adjusted returns by decreasing portfolio volatility. The best option to scale back portfolio volatility is to neatly diversify throughout industries and sectors.

Mathematically, one of the simplest ways to scale back portfolio volatility is by investing in pairs of shares which have the bottom correlation.

Portfolio volatility can be decreased by investing in firms with low inventory value volatility.

Shares with sturdy complete return potential however low inventory value volatility embody Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Hormel Meals (HRL), and The Coca-Cola Firm (KO).

Remaining Ideas

The dividend shares vs. bonds debate will seemingly rage for a while. At Certain Dividend, we imagine dividend progress shares are one of the simplest ways to speculate for long-term wealth creation.

Dividend progress investing is a horny funding technique on each an absolute foundation and a risk-adjusted foundation. This can assist the newbie investor get began constructing their dividend progress portfolio.

As well as, the next Certain Dividend lists include many extra high quality dividend shares to think about:

• The Excessive Yield Dividend Kings Checklist is comprised of the 20 Dividend Kings with the best present yields.
• The Blue Chip Shares Checklist: shares with 10+ consecutive years of dividend will increase.
• The Excessive Dividend Shares Checklist: shares that attraction to buyers within the highest yields of 5% or extra.
• The Month-to-month Dividend Shares Checklist: shares that pay dividends each month, for 12 dividend funds per 12 months.
• The Dividend Champions Checklist: shares which have elevated their dividends for 25+ consecutive years.
  Observe: Not all Dividend Champions are Dividend Aristocrats as a result of Dividend Aristocrats have extra necessities like being in The S&P 500.