Seasonal Weakness and Institutional Rebalancing Add Pressure to Markets

August is a tricky month to commerce.

There was seasonal weak spot over the previous 35 years.

Liquidity is diminished and the quantity is skinny.

Volatility can rise.

Tax loss promoting and rebalancing typically happens amongst establishments forward of the top of the threerd quarter.

Earnings momentum and fading optimism can taper off in August.

Maggie Lake and I lined so much as all the time, and the video is accessible under.

Listed below are a few of the notes I despatched her forward of time.

Yields topped as predicted and now, we might see additional drop-looking at basing however enjoyable begins over 90. The failed 100 if breaks 98 new leg down over 100 might see 103

Beneath is a chart of TLT. It represents all the pieces I lined with Maggie and in different Dailys.

TLT, after an public sale at this time, bought off. Nonetheless, the chart is evident. The rally Tuesday was to the July 6-month calendar vary excessive (I speak so much about that).

The continues to outperform for now which reveals threat on.

The Actual Movement Indicator had a imply reversion promote sign proper on the calendar vary excessive.

HOWEVER, the dots are above the transferring averages whereas the worth is above the 50-DMA and under the 200-DMA. A bullish divergence.

What I mentioned with Maggie is the chance that yields drop additional, TLT clears the resistance and SPY, can proceed to run as properly, however look ahead to the efficiency to shift. DXY-Monthly Chart

That is the month-to-month chart of the greenback.

The rally again as much as the 80-month transferring common (100) was an ideal technical bounce into longer-term resistance.

The greenback beneath 98 will look extra like a failure and cause to consider it’ll head even decrease.

That is bullish for commodities and Maggie and I cowl so much about power and the assorted uncooked supplies associated to power.

Has bottomed?

Very probably.

Maggie and I additionally mentioned and the way it seems nice over 3350 and over 3450 we might see new all-time highs.

, 38.50 is the purpose to clear after which 40 is the breakout. Gold Price Chart

That is the October contract of gold.

I’ve heard a whole lot of bears on the market.

I don’t see any bearish case on this chart.

The three charts I embrace within the Each day ought to allow you to decide threat and the following course of the market.

A weakening greenback, decrease yields and rising gold costs are usually risk-off.

Ought to gold unload, yields stay flat, and the greenback runs up, the market might maintain, so that’s while you discuss with the July 6-month calendar ranges.

What’s breaking out, down or caught in a variety.