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Morning Bid: Gold-plated fear

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By Mike Dolan

Jan 26 –

What issues in U.S. and international markets right now

By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Giant, Finance and Markets

Gold appeared unstoppable on Monday because it topped $5,000 per ounce for the primary time ever, vaulting greater than 80% over the previous 12 months.

What’s the set off for the newest surge? Take ​your choose from the potential drivers: a falling greenback, a fracturing world order, renewed commerce tensions, worries about Fed independence, and the next inflation horizon.

Central ‌financial institution shopping for and retail hypothesis additionally proceed to growth. So, wanting ahead, gold and treasured metals – with silver at new information too – seem more likely to stay the haven and hedge of alternative.

I’ll get into all that ‌and extra beneath.

However first, try my newest column on why this week’s Fed coverage assembly may mark a key flashpoint within the escalating battle for central financial institution independence.

And hearken to the newest episode of the Morning Bid every day podcast. Subscribe to listen to Reuters journalists focus on the largest information in markets and finance seven days per week.

GOLD-PLATED FEAR

The newest spike within the gold worth comes after a torrid week of geopolitics surrounding Greenland, capped by President Trump’s abrupt U-turn on navy and commerce threats in opposition to the Arctic island and its ⁠European backers, respectively.

Whereas the about-face has lowered tensions, it was ‌a hole victory for Trump’s NATO allies, a few of whom worry lasting harm to the alliance in mild of the president’s erratic, centralized international coverage decision-making.

And the spectre of commerce tensions nonetheless looms giant as tariff threats in opposition to different allies stay stay. Trump lashed ‍out at Canada once more on Saturday, threatening 100% tariffs over Prime Minister Mark Carney’s pending commerce settlement with China.

Meantime, the greenback plunged to two-month lows in opposition to the yen amid hypothesis about joint U.S.-Japan motion to prop up Japan’s forex. This adopted studies on Friday that the New York Fed had checked greenback/yen charges with sellers – thought-about a precursor to intervention. Any U.S. involvement would reinforce the assumption ​that Washington desires a weaker greenback usually.

At dwelling, the deadly taking pictures of one other anti-ICE protester in Minneapolis has additional raised U.S. political tensions in what is a vital ‌election 12 months for the Trump administration. What’s extra, the furore may threat a partial authorities shutdown later this week. Chuck Schumer, the Senate’s prime Democrat, stated on Saturday evening his celebration would vote in opposition to funding laws that features cash for the Division of Homeland Safety.

And the impacts of Winter Storm Fern, which has ravaged a lot of North America, continued to be felt within the power markets on Monday as oil costs edged increased because of output disruptions. This got here after a greater than 2% rise within the earlier session.

Apart from a weaker greenback, this morning has additionally seen regular U.S. shares and a slip in Treasury yields forward of Wednesday’s Fed assembly – the place coverage is predicted ⁠to stay unchanged – and the discharge of a raft of earnings this week from the likes ​of Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, and others.

Chart of the day

Gold surged to a report excessive above $5,100 an oz on ​Monday, marking a greater than 18% enhance this 12 months. That’s following a 64% spike in 2025, its greatest annual achieve since 1979. The dramatic rise has been pushed by safe-haven demand, U.S. financial coverage easing, sturdy central financial institution purchases, and report inflows into exchange-traded funds.

In the meantime, silver ‍climbed above the $100 mark for the primary ⁠time on Friday, constructing on its 147% rise final 12 months as retail-investor flows and momentum-driven shopping for compounded a chronic spell of tightness in bodily markets for the metallic.

In the present day’s occasions to observe

* U.S. producers’ new orders for November (8:30 AM EST), Dallas Fed enterprise survey for January (10:30 AM EST)

* U.S. company earnings: Alexandria Actual Property ⁠Equities, Brown & Brown, Nucor, Metal Dynamics, W. R. Berkley

Wish to obtain the Morning Bid in your inbox each weekday morning? Join the e-newsletter right here. You’ll find ROI on the Reuters web site, ‌and you may comply with us on LinkedIn and X.

Opinions expressed are these of the creator. They don’t replicate the views of Reuters Information, which, below ‌the Belief Rules, is dedicated to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

(By Mike Dolan)



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