When you walked proper previous the meat aisle in your final journey to the grocery retailer, you’re not the one one. Beef is beginning to really feel like a luxurious as costs keep at document highs, and there’s no finish in sight for markups.
Floor beef averaged about $6.70 per pound in March, almost a greenback greater than final yr, in line with knowledge from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Beef steaks, which price a mean of $12.73 per pound in March, are up 16% from a yr in the past.
Costs have decreased barely since January, in line with the BLS, however don’t anticipate floor beef to return to $4 or $5 per pound anytime quickly. In its most up-to-date forecast, the USDA estimated that beef costs will climb 10.1% in 2026, although value inflation may fluctuate between 2.8 to 18.3%.
It’s straightforward to level out supply-side points as the rationale for greater costs. Beef cattle stock is at a 75-year low, in line with the American Farm Bureau Federation, attributable to persistent drought, excessive rates of interest, and rising manufacturing prices. As of January, the cattle stock is down 8.2 million animals or 8.6% from 2020, a yr earlier than a persistent and excessive drought started to shrink herd sizes. Cattle numbers are anticipated to remain down till at the least 2028, in line with the Farm Bureau.
However the largest contributor to excessive costs is ever-increasing demand from American customers, stated Glynn Tonsor, professor of agricultural economics at Kansas State College.
“Meat is having a second,” Tonsor informed Fortune. Rising beef demand is an element of a bigger protein-frenzy within the U.S. lately as People flip to high-protein meals in an try to enhance their well being. New federal dietary tips suggest “prioritizing protein” and embrace it in each meal.
Larger provide and demand are finally the rationale for greater costs, defined Tonsor, who runs the Meat Demand Monitor, a mission out of Kansas State that has surveyed the U.S. public about their preferences, views, and demand for meat each month since February 2020.
Self-reported charges of being vegan or vegetarian have additionally gone down, in line with the monitor. In 2020, 14% of People reported being vegan or vegetarian. In 2025, simply 7% of individuals reported being vegan or vegetarian, signaling greater curiosity in consuming meat and different animal merchandise.
“Home U.S. client demand for beef has grown every of the final two years, and that financial pressure has the impact of pulling up costs,” Tonsor stated. “That’s truly a much bigger financial pressure of your greater costs in the present day than something on the availability facet.”
Regardless of having fewer cows, the U.S. has produced extra beef than earlier than to fulfill excessive demand.
“We’re getting extra beef per cow due to the offspring. We’re making them greater and promoting them at a heavier weight than ever earlier than, and we’re importing extra beef from overseas as a part of that.” To satisfy excessive demand, meatpackers have been importing extra beef from international locations corresponding to Argentina and Mexico. Imports this yr have elevated 11% year-to-date as of April 11, in comparison with 2025, in line with the USDA.
What to anticipate within the subsequent few months
Protein costs have gone down within the final two months, however a hike in manufacturing prices is anticipated this yr because the conflict in Iran raises vitality costs. Common gasoline costs within the U.S. have held regular over $4 per gallon this month, and consultants and authorities officers consider that they’ll keep excessive for the following a number of months, if not till 2027.
Excessive vitality costs could have reverberations on each a part of the meat manufacturing course of, from cow feed to transportation prices to meat processing and refrigeration on the grocery retailer. Elevated transportation prices are going to hit beef customers quickly, Tonsor stated. However value will increase may proceed properly into final yr attributable to greater fertilizer costs, which is able to elevate corn and cow feed costs. It will probably result in weaker manufacturing development as a result of manufacturing prices are greater, irrespective of how a lot People need extra beef.
“Not all people will broaden that will have earlier than, so you will have much less eventual beef present up for customers than you’ll have earlier than,” Tonsor stated.
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