Final week, I wrote about the Genesis Mission — the brand new nationwide AI program designed to maintain america within the lead as synthetic intelligence accelerates towards superintelligence (ASI).
Naturally, I’m enthusiastic about what this implies for our future. However there’s one other piece to this ASI race that makes me rather less optimistic.
As a result of even when we unleash our nationwide labs to construct one of the best fashions, and even when the Genesis Mission delivers every little thing it guarantees…
None of this issues if we don’t have sufficient energy.
And that brings me to this week’s chart.
As you possibly can see, it reveals China’s electrical energy consumption from 2000 to in the present day. And the curve isn’t simply steep.
It’s practically vertical.
In sensible phrases, China added the equal of a complete European Union’s price of electrical energy demand in simply six years.
Now, you would simply chalk this up as financial progress. In spite of everything, China has needed to quickly improve its infrastructure over the past twenty years to assist its manufacturing growth.
However I additionally see this as strategic positioning.
China is aware of that AI, automation and superior manufacturing will push world electrical energy demand to ranges the West isn’t prepared for. And moderately than look forward to the world to adapt, it has spent many years constructing era, transmission traces and large-scale industrial capability at a tempo we haven’t matched.
In the meantime, the U.S. is straining to maintain up with its personal wants.
Information facilities are increasing quicker than utilities can approve new era. Grid operators are warning about provide gaps. And in a number of areas, new industrial initiatives are being delayed as a result of there merely isn’t sufficient energy to assist them.
As I’ve stated for the previous yr, I imagine electrical energy shall be a good greater bottleneck for AI than chips within the close to future.
And China has an enormous lead in electrical energy manufacturing.
Right here’s My Take
The race to ASI can be a race to construct the power infrastructure that may assist it.
And while you have a look at China’s energy curve, you see a rustic that clearly understands this.
That doesn’t imply america can’t shut the hole. Our grid is perhaps older, however once we put our minds to it, our innovation cycle could be extremely quick.
And with the Genesis Mission now underway, we’re lastly treating energy as a part of a nationwide technique.
However we have to stay conscious that electrical energy will turn out to be a deciding issue through which nation can scale AI the quickest. And China’s explosive electrical energy progress provides it a head begin.
If america desires to steer the race to superintelligence, upgrading our grid shall be simply as necessary as constructing new AI fashions.
Now we have the assets to shut this power hole.
We’ll discover out quickly sufficient if we have now the urgency.
Regards,
Ian King
Chief Strategist, Banyan Hill Publishing
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