International gasoline costs have spiked previously few weeks, pushed by battle within the Center East, pushing UK wholesale vitality costs up dramatically.
Under, we’ll clarify what this implies in your vitality tariff proper now, what we find out about vitality costs sooner or later, and solutions to the primary questions we have been getting.
This web page was final up to date on April 1, 2026, however markets are altering quickly, so it could properly go outdated as quickly because it’s revealed. We’ll maintain it up to date with any main adjustments.
Why are world gasoline costs going up?
What’s going to occur with my vitality tariff?
Ought to I repair my costs?
I am on Tracker or Agile, what does it imply for me?
I am a enterprise buyer, what does it imply for me?
What wouldn’t it take for the UK to be ‘vitality safe’?
Our founder Greg breaks all of it down in lower than 5 minutes:
Why are world gasoline costs going up?
Power costs are spiking proper now as a result of developments within the Center East have sharply decreased world provide. The principle driver is strikes launched by Israel and the US on Iran, which have successfully turned the Strait of Hormuz right into a no-go zone. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil and gasoline often passes by way of this waterway, so tens of millions of barrels have been blocked from coming into the worldwide provide chain. And when tens of millions of barrels get taken out of the availability chain, the remainder of the world’s oil and gasoline will get much more costly. Watch us break it down in lower than a minute.
The disaster intensified on March 2nd when QatarEnergy, one of many world’s greatest exporters of liquid pure gasoline (LNG) halted manufacturing at its two primary amenities after they have been hit by Iranian drones. On March 4th, Qatar formally declared pressure majeure — a authorized “act of God” clause that permits them to cancel gasoline deliveries with out penalty as a consequence of uncontrollable circumstances like battle. This quickly doubled gasoline costs. We clarify all of it beneath in one other fast video.
What’s going to occur with my vitality tariff?
For those who’re on our variable tariff, Versatile Octopus, the earliest you’d see the latest market spikes influence your payments is July.
Your costs are protected by the vitality worth cap, which lasts till the tip of June. It fell on April 1st, shrinking the typical house’s invoice by about £117 vs January costs due to the federal government’s levy cuts. If these wholesale market will increase stick round, you’d first see their influence on the worth cap for July-September.
For those who’re on a set tariff, your charges are locked in til your contract ends. When it’s time to resume, we’ll present you our greatest costs accessible on the time, which change usually primarily based in the marketplace.
Will tariff costs go up long run?
We have been compelled to push up our fastened costs sharply after the battle began. It’s not possible to foretell the long run: they may go up extra, or they may come down – it largely relies on what occurs within the Center East.
So, ought to I repair my costs?
None of us have a crystal ball that exhibits how lengthy this battle will final, so we will’t know for positive what’s greatest.
For those who’re on a set tariff with a number of months left to go, then it could be greatest to remain on that, as in any other case you’ll be paying extra within the brief time period. Examine your tariff (scroll down til you see your tariff and meter information).
For those who’re on Versatile Octopus, or nearing the tip of a set tariff, and feeling unsure about ongoing battle within the Center East, it’s possible you’ll be weighing up your choices.
For those who want certainty about your vitality payments for the subsequent 12 months, we’re nonetheless providing fastened tariffs in the intervening time. They’re dearer than they have been a number of weeks in the past, however in the event you simply cannot threat future rises in July or over Winter, they may very well be a sensible choice.
It’s additionally value taking into consideration that our newest tariffs embody exit charges, so that you’d need to take into account whether or not you would possibly want to change once more in a while down the road.
Generally you possibly can change your tariff on-line, and if not, e mail [email protected] and we’ll assist.
Why do a few of our tariffs have exit charges?
You’ll have the ability to repair on-line in the event you’re on Versatile Octopus otherwise you’re inside 49 days of the tip of your repair. For those who can’t see the choice to repair on-line, you possibly can chat to our workforce as an alternative – e mail [email protected].
I’m on Octopus Tracker or Agile Octopus – ought to I transfer to a typical tariff proper now?
That is genuinely your resolution and we would by no means push you both method. What the info exhibits is that with these dynamic, wholesale-based tariffs, it’s possible you’ll pay greater than commonplace tariff prospects within the brief time period, however usually these spikes do not erase long-term positive aspects.
Historic Tracker gasoline charges vs the Versatile Octopus worth cap, 2021-2026
We do not understand how lengthy battle may final, but when the state of affairs stabilises quickly and wholesale costs fall again rapidly, leaving your dynamic tariff now means being locked out for as much as 9 months – so would imply lacking out on these decrease costs for some time.
Over the previous 5 years, Tracker and Agile prospects who stayed the course have come out with financial savings. Learn extra right here.
If you would like safety and stability throughout this turbulence, you are free to repair now or transfer to Versatile Octopus, our worth cap protected tariff – learn extra about these choices above.
No matter you resolve, we’re right here to assist.
I am a enterprise buyer, what does it imply for me?
What wouldn’t it truly take for the UK to be ‘vitality safe’?
Photo voltaic panels powering a lighthouse in Norway
Why does the UK maintain getting hit so onerous by world vitality crises?
As a result of we’re closely depending on gasoline, which is a worldwide commodity. When provide is disrupted wherever on the earth, costs spike in all places — together with right here. We noticed it when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. We’re seeing it once more now.
Norway is a helpful comparability — they’ve invested closely in renewables, electrified their heating and transport, and reformed their electrical energy markets so low cost clear energy truly reaches shoppers. Whereas world shocks routinely ship UK energy costs hovering, Norwegian shoppers are structurally shielded from the chaos. The distinction is gasoline dependency.
So what is the resolution?
There is no single repair, however there is a clear path:
Cut back how a lot gasoline we want. Extra wind, photo voltaic and warmth pumps will get us nearer to self-sufficiency and fewer uncovered to world shocks. The expertise is prepared and getting cheaper yearly.
Reform our electrical energy markets in order that low cost renewable energy truly brings payments down. Proper now, even inexperienced electrical energy is priced in keeping with gasoline prices, and since the grid can’t at all times transfer energy from the place it’s generated to the place it’s wanted, we truly pay wind farms to show off and gasoline crops to interchange them. That wasted wind price practically £1.5 billion final 12 months alone. Successfully, it’s a market design downside, not an vitality downside, and it is solvable.
Use home North Sea gasoline whereas we nonetheless want it, slightly than importing it from areas susceptible to battle. This isn’t a silver bullet, and it will not deliver costs down in a single day, nevertheless it makes extra sense than transport gasoline from the opposite facet of the world.
Get on with nuclear, however do it effectively. New crops are at the least a decade away and authorities funding must be rigorously managed. It is a long-term piece of the puzzle, not a short-term repair.
Are you saying fossil fuels are the reply?
Completely not. The long run repair is constructing extra wind and photo voltaic, switching properties off gasoline boilers and on to warmth pumps, and reforming the way in which our electrical energy market works in order that clear, low cost energy truly drives down folks’s payments. That is what will get Britain off the gasoline dependency that makes these crises so damaging.
Greg’s place on the North Sea is a practical short-term argument: whereas we nonetheless want gasoline, it makes extra sense to make use of what we now have at house than to import it from areas susceptible to battle. He explains his concepts intimately on this interview with The Occasions. Let’s be clear – it’s been 20 years because the North Sea may meet all our wants and it received’t deliver costs down in a single day. It’s a bridge whereas we construct the true resolution, not a vacation spot in itself.
What about fracking?
We don’t assume fracking is a significant resolution for the UK. Our geology is denser and fewer productive than the US, and any extraction would not make a big contribution to our gasoline demand. And past the practicalities, the environmental case towards it’s properly documented — the dangers to native water provides, soil and communities are very actual considerations. It isn’t a highway we would need to go down even when the economics stacked up.
So when does this get higher?
The expertise is there. Renewables are cheaper than gasoline. Batteries price a tenth of what they did ten years in the past. The barrier now could be market reform and political will. We will not management what occurs within the Strait of Hormuz, however we will management how uncovered we’re when it does.
That is what “vitality safety” truly means.
What’s Octopus truly doing about this — are you simply speaking about it?
We’re one among Europe’s largest renewable vitality buyers, with 4.9 GW of wind and photo voltaic initiatives value £7 billion globally and £2 billion dedicated to new UK clear vitality by 2030. We manufacture our personal Cosy warmth pump to make inexperienced heating inexpensive, and we have already constructed the UK’s first zero-bills neighborhood — 113 properties in Essex with photo voltaic, warmth pumps and a shared battery, with no vitality payments assured for ten years.
We’re additionally pushing onerous for the market reforms that will truly repair this — publicly campaigning for zonal pricing, which might save shoppers at the least £2 billion a 12 months and break the hyperlink between gasoline and electrical energy costs, so world crises cease hitting British households so onerous.
We already know gasoline is not the long-term reply. Every part we construct factors within the different path.
