Iran launched missile assaults on Kuwait, main the UAE to contemplate becoming a member of a US-led mission to safe the Strait of Hormuz. Odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 are at 1% YES, whereas US forces getting into Iran by April 30 are at 86% YES.
Merchants are bearish on a near-term ceasefire, with April 7 odds dropping from 12% final week to 1% now. The April 15 market reveals an identical decline, down to six% YES. April 30 stands at 18%, indicating merchants see little likelihood of a ceasefire amid rising tensions.
Conversely, the percentages of US forces getting into Iran by the tip of April have surged to 86% YES, up from 58% every week in the past. The UAE’s involvement in securing the Strait of Hormuz suggests impending army actions, contributing to the rise. The marketplace for troops getting into Iran by December 31 additionally rose to 90% YES.
USDC traded within the ceasefire markets totals $430,773 within the final 24 hours, with $12,367 wanted to maneuver the April 7 worth 5 share factors. For the US forces market, buying and selling quantity is greater at $5,069,224, with $85,204 wanted to maneuver the April 30 odds by the identical margin. This means robust dealer conviction about army escalation.
Iran’s aggressive actions and the UAE’s alignment with the US scale back the probability of diplomatic resolutions. A YES share within the April 7 ceasefire market pays $1 if it resolves, however at 1¢, the market sees little likelihood of this consequence.
Look ahead to CENTCOM statements and UAE army actions. Modifications in operational language or troop deployments may affect these markets.
Markets Impacted
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