Kenya’s items commerce deficit widened at a double-digit price within the first three months of 2026 on elevated imports of commercial supplies, meals and gasoline that outpaced file export earnings, highlighting rising reliance on international provides and rising strain on international trade earnings.
A items commerce deficit happens when a rustic’s whole imports of bodily merchandise surpass its whole exports over a particular interval. This implies the nation spends extra on imported items than it earns from promoting its personal merchandise overseas.
Knowledge from the Kenya Nationwide Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) exhibits that the deficit in merchandise commerce grew 17.4 p.c to Sh437.03 billion within the January-March interval from Sh372.12 billion within the corresponding quarter final 12 months.
The widening hole means Kenya spent Sh437 billion extra on imported items than it earned from merchandise exports, underscoring a longstanding problem of producing enough export revenues to match the nation’s import wants.
Imports rose 14.4 p.c to Sh740.8 billion through the quarter from Sh647.6 billion a 12 months earlier, whereas exports elevated by a slower 10.3 p.c to a file Sh303.8 billion.
Kenyan exporters have traditionally cited tariff buildings in key export markets as a serious impediment to worth addition. Many merchants choose exporting uncooked produce as a result of semi-processed and processed merchandise can appeal to larger duties in vacation spot markets, significantly in Europe, making value-added exports much less aggressive.
President William Ruto has beforehand argued that exporting uncooked commodities deprives the nation of jobs, industrial development and better export earnings.
“For many years, now we have exported our tea, our espresso, our livestock, our minerals, our cotton, our hides and skins, and even our fish in uncooked type solely to import them again at a premium as completed merchandise,” he mentioned earlier.
He burdened that worth addition is important to rising incomes throughout provide chains and serving to Kenya seize a bigger share of the worth generated from its exports.
The nation’s import invoice within the opening quarter of the 12 months was pushed largely by a pointy enhance in meals purchases from worldwide markets.
Meals and beverage imports jumped 40.9 p.c to Sh81.6 billion from Sh57.9 billion within the first quarter of 2025, representing a further Sh23.7 billion spent on imported meals merchandise.
The rise made meals and drinks one of many largest contributors to the widening commerce deficit through the overview interval.
Industrial provides remained Kenya’s largest import class, rising by 10 p.c to Sh277.5 billion from Sh252.2 billion within the corresponding quarter final 12 months and exerting strain on the commerce steadiness.
Gas and lubricant imports elevated 15.8 p.c to Sh158.8 billion from Sh137.2 billion, reflecting the nation’s continued dependence on imported petroleum merchandise.
Transport gear imports elevated 26.9 p.c to Sh68.7 billion from Sh54.1 billion, whereas equipment and different capital gear imports climbed 8.5 p.c to Sh97.2 billion, pointing to continued funding in productive sectors of the financial system.
Shopper items imports rose 7.8 p.c to Sh53.7 billion from Sh49.8 billion within the first quarter of 2025.
Regardless of the widening deficit, Kenya posted its highest first-quarter export earnings on file.
Meals and beverage exports, the nation’s largest export class, elevated 5.2 p.c to Sh109.2 billion from Sh103.8 billion.
Shopper items exports rose 7.4 p.c to Sh68.3 billion whereas transport gear exports elevated 32.5 p.c to Sh3.3 billion.
Exports of equipment and capital gear greater than doubled to Sh11.2 billion from Sh5.2 billion a 12 months earlier, representing the quickest development amongst main export classes.
The positive factors have been, nevertheless, partly offset by a decline in industrial provides exports, which fell 14.6 p.c to Sh50.1 billion from Sh58.7 billion.
The commerce figures spotlight Kenya’s long-running battle to sustainably slim its items commerce deficit regardless of regular development in exports.
Economists have usually linked the imbalance to the nation’s reliance on conventional agricultural exports corresponding to tea, espresso and horticultural produce, a lot of which is shipped overseas in uncooked or minimally processed type.
This limits the worth Kenya captures from its exports, in contrast with completed merchandise that usually command considerably larger costs in worldwide markets.
Tea, one in every of Kenya’s largest international trade earners, continued to face headwinds through the quarter.
Tea export earnings declined to Sh45.3 billion from Sh46.1 billion a 12 months earlier as export volumes fell to 151,562 tonnes from 157,515 tonnes.
Espresso supplied a vibrant spot, with export earnings rising to Sh16.8 billion from Sh15.7 billion regardless of export volumes dropping to fifteen,848 tonnes from 16,894 tonnes.
The upper espresso earnings counsel exporters benefited from stronger worldwide costs somewhat than elevated volumes.
