It’s been lower than every week since Donald Trump gained his second presidential time period … however his affect on the markets is unmistakable …
We’ve seen belongings hovering throughout the board since final Tuesday, with traders scrambling to cost within the actuality of Trump’s America for 2025.
Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA) shares have soared by a completely large 37% over the past week, and we’ve additionally seen a renewed spike of curiosity in crypto forex.
However what in regards to the market’s greatest tech mega pattern?
How will synthetic intelligence (AI) investments fare below Trump’s new regime?
In July, I launched you to the Tech Demand Indicator (TDI).
The indicator measures the intent of companies to spend cash on expertise.
Extra importantly, it breaks down what particular expertise companies have spent cash on now and sooner or later.
It’s a stable gauge of simply the place enterprise sentiment is relative to expertise.
It might probably additionally assist us spot tendencies in cash flows associated to rising expertise, buyer expertise apps, knowledge facilities and the tech pattern of the final two years… synthetic intelligence (AI).
That method, we are able to slim down funding potentialities primarily based on the place cash goes.
Because the newest TDI numbers had been simply launched, I needed to spotlight some delicate surprises within the knowledge.
Let’s break it down…
Total Sentiment Rises … Stays Constructive
After I initially regarded on the TDI for the second quarter of 2024, it registered a 51.6 studying, suggesting that spending within the expertise sector above companies will proceed to develop.
Any studying over 50 signifies extra bullish spending tendencies.
That end result was buoyed by a rise in sentiment for AI expertise (i.e., AI chatbots, language fashions and facial recognition). The numbers confirmed that AI spending was pulling close to even with the demand for cloud and safety, manufacturing and software program/IT providers.
On the similar time, cloud infrastructure and data safety noticed slight dips.
Let’s see what the third-quarter numbers are displaying now:
The Q3 2024 TDI exhibits a slight improve in tech sentiment, rising from 51.6 to 51.9. It’s not an enormous bounce, however a bounce nonetheless.
Ranges are nonetheless properly under This autumn 2022’s file stage — spurred by the discharge of ChatGPT in November of that 12 months.
The largest shock wasn’t the flattening of tech spending sentiment however extra the place companies are spending their cash.
Let me present you…
Is AI Nonetheless the King of Tech?
What drove Q2’s bounce in sentiment was the continued buzz round AI.
One quarter later … a swap.
After three straight quarters of constant sentiment will increase, the AI buzz has began to chill barely. The AI expertise part of the indicator declined 3.6 factors from 61.3 to 57.7.
Then again, info safety noticed a large improve of 4.3 factors and cloud infrastructure and providers climbed 1.4 factors.
This means a short-term shift in greenback precedence associated to tech spending.
It additionally signifies firms have began to comprehend the mandatory infrastructure to implement large-scale AI tasks isn’t there … therefore a shift to pouring extra money into cloud infrastructure.
As an instance this, take a look at the capital spending of cloud suppliers like Microsoft:
Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT) is constantly growing AI providers to its Azure cloud platform.
Gross sales of AI providers inside Azure jumped 12 proportion factors from the earlier quarter to round $2.4 billion. It tells me Microsoft’s build-out of knowledge facilities just isn’t by likelihood however slightly to additional develop infrastructure, permitting the corporate to offer extra AI providers within the cloud.
One other instance is Oracle Corp. (Nasdaq: ORCL):
Consensus estimates counsel Oracle will proceed to extend its capital expenditure alongside its income.
Like Microsoft, the logic is easy: Improve your cloud infrastructure to permit a rise in AI expertise and improve cloud gross sales.
Because of this there’s rising sentiment in cloud infrastructure and providers, in addition to info safety.
AI isn’t dying on the vine or something like that. Tech firms are simply starting to comprehend they want way more infrastructure in place earlier than AI can actually take off.
Consider it this manner: You might be constructing a city, and one of many first orders of enterprise is to put in water traces and electrical energy.
Do you solely set up sufficient water traces and electrical energy to deal with your present inhabitants, or do you add greater than you want with the intent of increasing your city sooner or later?
Savvy metropolis planners will let you know to do the latter … Higher to organize now for what you may want sooner or later than get caught flat-footed.
AI might not be topping the spending charts anymore, but it surely’s actually not useless… not by any means.
In truth, as firms construct out the mandatory infrastructure, Chief Funding Strategist Adam O’Dell and I imagine there are going to be unbelievable alternatives to spend money on the following wave of AI tech.
And also you’ll be a few of the first to learn about it right here in Banyan Edge.
That’s all from me at this time.
Till subsequent time…
Till subsequent time…
Protected buying and selling,
Matt Clark, CMSA®
Chief Analysis Analyst, Cash & Markets
