Aman Chowhan stated monsoon issues aren’t a serious danger for earnings at this stage, however crude oil stays the dominant macro variable. He famous that even in a situation the place geopolitical tensions ease, oil costs might stay elevated, conserving strain on company earnings. “Monsoon is just not a giant fear. A weak monsoon might have some affect. The larger concern is crude oil. Even when there’s a cope with Iran, oil can keep round 80. That’s the actual danger.” He added that the affect of upper oil costs is prone to present up extra clearly in upcoming quarters. “March quarter was high-quality as a consequence of stock. June will present the affect. We see a 100–200 bps hit from increased oil costs.”
On the earnings outlook for FY27, Chowhan stated visibility stays restricted and firms themselves are nonetheless assessing the affect. “Earnings revision is but to occur. Corporations themselves are uncertain of the affect. We are going to know extra in just a few weeks.” He added that the important thing strain level is prone to be margins reasonably than demand. “The chance is extra on margins than topline. Demand is holding up nicely.”
On portfolio positioning, he stated allocation has shifted towards defensive and structural themes, particularly in a excessive crude oil setting. “We’re shopping for renewables—photo voltaic, wind, ethanol. That may be a key theme.” He additionally highlighted elevated publicity to pharma and home manufacturing as most well-liked areas for incremental funding.
On the IT sector, Chowhan remained cautious regardless of current corrections, citing structural issues round synthetic intelligence and valuations. “We exited IT six months in the past. No hurry to re-enter. Upside is restricted.” He stated AI-led effectivity enhancements might problem India’s conventional low-cost benefit, conserving valuation multiples beneath strain. “AI will enhance effectivity, nevertheless it pressures India’s low-cost mannequin. Valuations might keep beneath strain.”
On consumption, he maintained a constructive view on demand however flagged near-term margin strain as a consequence of rising enter prices, notably metals. “Demand is powerful. We like discretionary and durables.” Nonetheless, he added that increased steel costs might weigh on profitability within the brief time period.
On different sectors, he stated capital market-linked companies comparable to wealth and broking stay engaging as a consequence of robust enterprise fashions, whereas infrastructure has turned impartial as a consequence of fiscal pressures arising from increased oil costs. “Infra is impartial as a consequence of fiscal strain from increased oil.”In financials, Chowhan stated fundamentals stay wholesome however overseas institutional investor (FII) promoting continues to weigh on sentiment. “Banking is sweet, however FII promoting is a headwind.” Throughout the house, he continues to desire NBFCs and personal banks over PSU banks.
He additionally highlighted FCNR inflows as a supportive issue for the foreign money, noting that engaging yields might draw significant overseas inflows. “FCNR inflows are constructive for the rupee. Returns may be engaging, even 12–15% with leverage.”
On tactical alternatives, Chowhan pointed to chemical substances, defence, and choose engineering shares as areas of curiosity, supported by foreign money advantages and relative valuation consolation.
-1024x683.jpg?w=350&resize=350,250&ssl=1 "US-Iran Peace: Done or Delayed?")
