Left: Meta CEO and Chairman Mark Zuckerberg arrives at Los Angeles Superior Court docket in February. Proper: Tarek Mansour, co-founder of Kalshi, on the Semafor World Financial system Summit in April.
Patrick T. Fallon/AFP and Aaron Schwartz/Bloomberg through Getty Photos
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Patrick T. Fallon/AFP and Aaron Schwartz/Bloomberg through Getty Photos
Earlier than Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg directed workers to construct a standalone prediction market app, he proposed shopping for Kalshi, the main firm within the prediction market sector, in keeping with three individuals with data of the discussions who weren’t approved to talk publicly.
Zuckerberg met with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour a few potential takeover final 12 months as Kalshi’s reputation surged, however the negotiations by no means superior, in keeping with one of many individuals who had direct data of the assembly.
There are competing narratives about why the talks broke down, with some saying Mansour wouldn’t transfer ahead with a sale and others indicating Meta thought-about the authorized and moral questions surrounding Kalshi too messy.
No matter made the discussions collapse, Meta nonetheless desires to faucet into the prediction market craze. Zuckerberg has stood up a workforce that’s now working to launch its personal prediction market app referred to as Enviornment, which inner paperwork reviewed by NPR present will permit individuals to make guesses about future occasions.
Not like Kalshi and its fundamental competitor, Polymarket, Meta’s app won’t take bets utilizing actual cash. As an alternative, customers will wager “play cash” on the end result of happenings within the information and subjects trending on-line. Meta’s paperwork say the corporate’s synthetic intelligence methods will energy the questions and decide who wins or loses based mostly on one thing occurring or not.
Neither Kalshi nor Meta would offer NPR with a remark when requested concerning the acquisition talks.
Prediction markets have turn out to be one of many fastest-growing elements of the tech business in recent times. The websites permit individuals to position bets on every little thing from sports activities to elections as to whether Iran will develop a nuclear weapon.
The huge inflow of customers into prediction markets makes the house an apparent goal for Zuckerberg, in keeping with Tim Wu, a Columbia College legislation professor who suggested the Biden White Home on tech coverage.
“Meta appears to clutch at each shiny object,” Wu stated. “With the assistance of their promoting money cow, they have been in a position to fail repeatedly with out consequence,” he stated, citing Meta’s pullback from the so-called “metaverse,” and the abandonment of its cryptocurrency mission, Libra. “I can not think about a on line casino app with pretend cash goes to be a lot of a thrill,” he stated. “However perhaps it is one thing my youngsters would love, I do not know.”
Thanks partially to a permissive regulatory surroundings in Washington, prediction markets have seen staggering progress.
In June 2025, about $28 billion was traded each month on Kalshi and Polymarket. A 12 months later, month-to-month quantity on the websites is almost $220 billion, pushed principally by sports-related betting, in keeping with The Block, a information and analysis firm that tracks prediction market knowledge.
Kalshi, which is overseen by commodities regulators in Washington, was valued at $22 billion in its newest funding spherical in Could, up from a $2 billion valuation final 12 months. Polymarket, which operates an abroad change exterior the attain of U.S. regulators, is valued at $10.7 billion, in keeping with the personal market knowledge agency PitchBook.
The rise of prediction markets has set off dozens of authorized battles pitting the tech corporations towards state gaming officers, who insist the websites are playing beneath a unique title.
President Trump has vowed to guard prediction market corporations, at the same time as controversies over insider buying and selling and market manipulation plague the business.
Justice Division officers have opened two prison circumstances over alleged insider buying and selling on Polymarket. One includes a particular forces soldier who allegedly profited from labeled details about the seize of Venezuelan chief Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces. Within the different case, DOJ accuses a Google worker who earned greater than $1 million of utilizing confidential knowledge about search tendencies to accurately guess the most-Googled individuals of 2025.
Meta’s “purchase or bury” technique
Zuckerberg’s curiosity in buying Kalshi follows a well-known company sample. Meta has amassed a consumer base of greater than 3 billion worldwide via the takeover of rising social media platforms. Notably, Meta’s purchases of Instagram in 2012 and WhatsApp in 2014 supercharged its attain and allowed it to turn out to be a colossal pressure in digital promoting. Extra lately, Meta purchased AI wearable firm Limitless and Moltbook, a social community for AI bots.
Meta’s takeovers have attracted scrutiny from federal regulators. The Federal Commerce Fee alleged at a trial final 12 months that Meta engages in a “purchase or bury” technique through which nascent rivals are both acquired by the corporate, or Meta introduces a service cloning the competitor to squash their enterprise.
A decide sided with Meta, ruling that the corporate didn’t violate any competitors legal guidelines when it devoured up Instagram and WhatsApp. Attorneys with the FTC are interesting the choice.
Whereas the acquisition talks by no means superior, Meta did strike a partnership with Kalshi in March, permitting for straightforward integration of Kalshi markets on Meta’s social media app Threads.
Wu, the previous White Home tech coverage adviser, stated Meta grew to become an organization price greater than $1 trillion by buying apps moderately than constructing its personal. He argues Meta throws its energy and cash round like a monopoly and distorts the aggressive subject for everybody else.
“WhatsApp and Instagram have given them unending earnings, however regular corporations can not fail 5 instances in a row,” he stated. “Meta trying to take over Kalshi suits in with the corporate’s long-standing practices.”
