Higher Manchester’s relative development success story has not translated right into a increase in earnings or earnings for individuals in outer boroughs, in accordance with a brand new report.
Oxford Economics analysis has recommended that “distinctive financial development” has not translated into greater earnings or earnings development across the area.
Economists mentioned excessive ranges of inactivity and the shortage of beneficial properties on productiveness in locations away from Manchester’s metropolis centre has held again households.
The report examines the broader narrative enjoying out forward of Andy Burnham’s entry into Quantity 10, with the previous Higher Manchester mayor taking credit score for the expansion beneficial properties skilled over latest years.
He has additionally used excessive development figures to trumpet his requires additional devolution whereas promising “good development in each postcode”.
Whereas common disposable earnings development within the metropolis has outperformed the nationwide common by round 0.6 share factors between 2008 and 2025, development in Higher Manchester boroughs Salford and Bolton has lagged 0.7 share factors behind the nation’s pattern charges.
Bury, Oldham and Wigan have additionally struggled to maintain up with development experiences in areas corresponding to Manchester, Trafford and Tameside.
Economists mentioned these areas had been notably affected by a pointy rise in people who find themselves out of labor and are economically inactive, with long-term illness up by virtually 25 per cent throughout the entire of town area.
Manchester metropolis’s development is a ‘devolution success story’
The report additionally recommended that some poor transport connections and a “comparatively small” labour market meant that Manchester’s development has did not spill over to different areas throughout the area.
The report mentioned a sluggish stage of earnings development outdoors the centre suggests city areas “stay too weak, too small, and too poorly related to unfold
development throughout the whole area”.
Economists at Oxford Economics additionally recommended there have been questions in regards to the metropolis’s productiveness development, which “has been weak by historic requirements”.
Whereas town loved a median 2.1 per cent rise in annual productiveness development between 1991 and 2007, its pattern had come to a median of 1.2 per cent every year because the monetary disaster. This was greater than ranges seen throughout the UK and in London.
One other paper by the consultancy additionally raised issues in regards to the knowledge underpinning Manchester’s development charges given the Workplace for Nationwide Statistics has struggled to publish dependable labour market figures.
In contrast, the Centre for Cities, a suppose tank favoured by Burnham, mentioned Manchester’s metropolis centre has improved because of a greater concentrate on buses by the non-public sector-operated Bee Community buses and tram traces.
It labelled new transport frameworks a “devolution success story”.
It additionally identified that wages within the metropolis had been greater than the nationwide common although unemployment between 2024 and 2025 was additionally above the UK’s price.
