Galaxy Analysis has mapped out a concrete “specific lane” for US crypto ETFs past Bitcoin and Ethereum—and, on its scorecard, XRP holds the cleanest path alongside Solana if the Securities and Alternate Fee adopts the newly proposed fast-track framework.
XRP, SOL Or DOGE: Who Leads The ETF Quick-Monitor?
The evaluation hinges on a trio of itemizing exams superior by Cboe BZX, Nasdaq and NYSE Arca in coordinated 19b-4 filings on July 30, which intention to switch in the present day’s case-by-case approvals with standardized eligibility. Public remark durations closed on August 25; the preliminary SEC choice date is September 13, with a most outdoors date of March 27, 2026. “This… would considerably alleviate a significant burden for an company dealing with an amazing and ever-growing variety of crypto ETP functions,” Galaxy writes, including that it expects a call “ahead of the most recent potential deadline.”
The proposed fast-track hinges on three goal circumstances, any one in all which might qualify a token’s ETF for expedited overview: buying and selling on a market that’s an Intermarket Surveillance Group (ISG) member; underpinning a futures contract that has traded on a chosen contract market (DCM) for at the very least six months with surveillance-sharing; or, on an preliminary foundation, having “an exchange-traded fund designed to supply financial publicity of at least 40% of its internet asset worth” to the underlying asset listed on a nationwide securities alternate. Galaxy underscores that the primary prong (ISG for spot) presently captures solely BTC and ETH, so near-term candidates will likely be sorted primarily by the regulated-futures and ≥40%-ETF-exposure prongs.
On that framework, Solana and Dogecoin already clear Situation 2 in the present day, Galaxy says, as a result of every has been listed for greater than six months on Coinbase Derivatives—a CFTC-regulated DCM with surveillance agreements—whereas XRP “will… attain [its] six-month seasoning” in October.
In Galaxy’s phrases: “In whole, 10 tokens meet the factors for expedited itemizing: DOGE, BCH, LTC, LINK, XLM, AVAX, SHIB, DOT, SOL, and HBAR. Moreover, ADA and XRP will quickly qualify as a result of they may have been buying and selling on a chosen contract market (DCM) for six months after their preliminary itemizing date.” That timing distinction, by itself, locations SOL and DOGE a step forward of XRP on the futures-seasoning check.
Crucially, Galaxy additionally argues that Solana and XRP could fulfill the third prong as nicely: “XRP and SOL may additionally qualify as a result of they each have exchange-traded funds listed on a nationwide alternate that present ‘at least 40% of their NAV’ to the underlying token. These are technically futures ETFs that observe XRP and SOL contracts.” If the SEC accepts that interpretation, Solana would qualify underneath two unbiased routes (regulated-futures seasoning plus ≥40% ETF publicity), whereas Dogecoin would depend on the futures route alone and XRP would unlock each routes as soon as its six-month DCM window matures. That dual-qualifier standing is the core of Galaxy’s implicit pecking order.
Issuers’ positioning reinforces the triage. In late June, Invesco and Galaxy formally entered the US race for a spot Solana ETF, giving SOL a well-resourced sponsor complicated already embedded within the crypto ETP ecosystem. In the meantime, Bloomberg’s ETF analysis desk has framed SOL, XRP and a number of other others as high-probability approvals by end-2025 if a standardized regime is blessed. None of that ensures sequencing, however it highlights that Solana pairs regulatory-criteria readiness with stay filings from blue-chip issuers—a bonus that Dogecoin shares solely partly and XRP will match as soon as its DCM seasoning completes.
Solana Has A Slender Lead
Galaxy’s backside line will not be a horse-race name a lot as a rules-based shortlist. The agency notes that 9 of the tokens that already qualify—or will imminently qualify—even have pending ETF functions, explicitly naming Dogecoin, Litecoin, Chainlink, Avalanche, Polkadot, Solana, Hedera, XRP and Cardano as “extra prone to see ETF launches” if the rule is adopted.
However between XRP, SOL and DOGE, the one asset that checks the six-month regulated-futures field in the present day and plausibly the ≥40%-ETF-exposure field as nicely is Solana, making it the “fast-track favourite” underneath Galaxy’s framework. Because the analysis cautions, last outcomes nonetheless rely on how the SEC interprets the ≥40% check and whether or not it accepts the exchanges’ plan to bolt on extra quantitative guardrails reminiscent of minimal US buying and selling quantity and market-cap thresholds.
If the SEC strikes rapidly this autumn, the market might see the primary non-BTC/ETH spot approvals as early as This fall, with sequencing prone to mirror in the present day’s eligibility math. On Galaxy’s worksheet, that retains Solana in pole place, Dogecoin shut behind on the futures-seasoning lane, and XRP set to affix the entrance row as soon as its October clock ticks previous six months.
At press time, XRP traded at $2.91.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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